2007 has been a good year for my cash portfolio. NAV of my cash portfolio has increased by 49.4% from $1.44 to $2.15. I have no confidence that I will repeat this performance in 2008 but I believe that in long term (10 to 15 years), getting a compounded return of 10% from stock can be quite easily done. With this record-breaking performance, my compounded return over the 8 years is 10.1%.
The best move of the years must be the selling of People’s Food. PFood was sold at an average price of $2 after it announced shortage of pigs. Since then, the price has retracted to $1.11, which translates to a PE of 10 but I will continue to monitor the situation before getting back to the counter.
The mistake of the year must be the series of transaction near end July. Instead of holding on to the build up in cash position, I hurried to purchase a couple of counters which does not offer really good values and results in a loss of $2.2 k in a month.
Currently, I am still positive of long term prospect of Celestial, Pacific Andes despite sitting on paper loss. I am confident of performance of Hour Glass, Pokka, Kingsmen Creative and Inter Roller going into 2008. As for Mid-south, Lantrovision and Koda, I am neutral on them.
Companies that are within my radar are FSL (for its high dividend yield), Apex Pal (bold expansion plan), Pan United (benefiting from construction boom), Beauty
(re-entry if valuation becomes attractive again) China
NAV increased by 10.3% from $2.19 to $2.41. This is the lowest YTY increase for the past 5 years but it is still much better than CPF return of 2.5%. Compounded return for the 5 years now stand at 19.3%.
The portfolio would have better showing if I had not sold off Sincere to raise cash for Jardine C&C and this mistake is compounded by the subsequent selling of Jardine in September. Again, I need to be discipline in holding to a winning counter instead of realizing the gain!
For the currentlportfolio, I am confident of a steady return in terms of dividend at an average yield of 6.22%. Any positive move in price will come from market revaluating the counters due to NAV (Metro, Singlan). Food Junction remains a wild card which I might dispose of if there are better buying opportunities.