Yes, I miss my quarterly review. *spank* myself once for the lack of discipline. No matter how busy I am, I must find time for this!
Cash Portfolio
In general, last half a year has been roller-coaster ride for my cash portfolio. The sub-prime fear has driven my portfolio down by as much as 20% in the first quarter of the year with some of my stocks dropping by as much as 40%. Even to date, with my portfolio 2.0% lower than December 2007, I have three stocks trading at 40% below my purchase prices. I am glad that the large fluctuation has not affected me too much emotionally. I was calm and looking for opportunity to purchase some counters at a lower price and holding on to some cash as I am uncertain of the outlook of other counters.
(a) Celestial Nutrifood
Celestial is a counter that fluctuates a lot due to high trading volume. I have taken the opportunity (or you can say it’s risk) by dollar-averaging this counter by 2 separate purchases in Jan and Feb, bringing the average purchase price to $0.9 from the initial price of $1.28. My confidence with the company lies with its success in its execution of phase 1 expansion plan; ability to pass the higher cost to the customer; visible expansion plan in the next 1 or 2 years. Couple with the low PE (6.8 based on 2007 results at $0.9), it’s a bargain.
The company announced its FY 2007 results in Feb with revenue growth of 55.4% and net profit growth of 13.3% with net profit margin at 23.3% (lower than 2006 31.9%). The lower net profit growth and margin is attributed to the higher finance cost on the issue of convertible bonds which will reduce in time. The company declares a $0.02 dividend which translates to a 2.22% dividend yield for me.
In May, the company announced a positive 20081Q results with both revenue and net profit 50% higher than 20071Q. The growth is attributed to higher utilization rate, expansion in sales and higher pricing. The company’s 2008 plan for the four High Protein Nutrient products are on schedule; and the manufacturing of biodiesel is in progress too but Directors advice a change in input, using of other materials instead of soybean oil as the price of soybean oil has increased. Overall, the long term market for soybean-based products is favorable.
As mentioned this stocks fluctuates very much. From a high of $1.4 plus (last may/jun), the price drops to a low of $0.56 (in Jan / Feb). It is “scary” as I see the price plummet down; yet on the other hand I wonder why is it hit so badly when the fundamental is intact. And the price goes back all the way to $0.90 now with no change in the company’s fundamental as compared to 3 months ago.
My holding is break-even now and with this high amount of fluctuation, I might consider offloading some of my holdings when the price hits $1.35 (50% gain).
(b) Midsouth
A company which I felt has potential for a high growth in the next few years but the market did not think so. Against the muted response by the market on the counter, the company has decided to delist from SGX with an offer of $0.8 per share which is still lower than my purchase of $0.815 *sigh*. I do feel a bit gutted as I can see its growth potential in the next 3 to 5 years but I cannot fault the management’s offer which is a premium of 30 to 40% over its average trading price over the last few months.
I have since sold the counter at $0.775, so that I can utilize my cash for other potential candidates. Also, if the deal does not go through and the company fails to take it private, I expect the share price to trend downwards and provide me another opportunity to purchase the counter cheaper.
(c) The Hour Glass
The Hour Glass reported a revenue growth of 20% and net profit growth of 63.8% over 2007. Net profit margin improves to 6.2% with ROE hitting 17.4%. The company expects a slowing in sales momentum for 2008 and decides to seize this opportunity to position itself for growth in the next 3 years which I take this as a positive move for long term growth. While company guides that there could be a slow down, I personally feel that the sentiment might not hurt the rich as much as the not-so rich.
Since my purchase in December last year, the company did a 2-for-1 split in Feb, hence now I hold 10 lots of the counter which I have no intention to divest in the near future. A $0.02 dividend was declared for FY2007 which is slightly disappointing as I have expected more but given that the company needs the cash for expansion, it is acceptable.
(d) Pacific Andes
The company just reported its full year results on 30th May. Revenue and net profit grew 32.3% and 23.2% respectively. At current price, the company is trading at about 9x is earning. It has declared a dividend of $0.0207 which gives me a dividend yield of 3.1 %.
As mentioned previously on my uncertainty of its debt structure, I have not loaded more of its shares even though its price is now 30% lower than my purchase price. At the same time, I am in no hurry to off-load this counter as I am still impressed by its growth rate. To sum it up, I am pretty neutral towards this counter at this moment.
As mentioned previously on my uncertainty of its debt structure, I have not loaded more of its shares even though its price is now 30% lower than my purchase price. At the same time, I am in no hurry to off-load this counter as I am still impressed by its growth rate. To sum it up, I am pretty neutral towards this counter at this moment.
