2017 9M performance

Performance
Another quarter has passed and it's time to take stock of portfolio's performance.

It is a muted performance for the quarter, resulting in a slight increase in NAV compared to 20171H performance. In fact, if not for the strong performance of Valuetronics and UMS over the past few days, this quarter will post a return lower than 20171H.

NAV of portfolio grew from $3.78 (30 Dec 2016) to $5.22 (30 Sep 2017), providing a return of 37.8% for 9 months. Definitely happy as this is well above my stretched target of 12% and also beats benchmark STI ETF which returned about 14% (inclusive of dividend) over the same period. 

The chart below shows the performance of  past 7 quarters.

The muted quarter's performance can be attributed to the following:

• weaker market sentiment for the past quarter, 
• continued sell-down of Raffles Medical Group, 
• correction of Food Empire,
• divestment of  Micro-Mechanics which shot up 20% after I sold, *ouch*
• increase in trading activities as I look for new ideas for the next few years.

Gainers and losers
The following tables show the top gainers and losers for this year thus far. The list should remain pretty much the same by end of the year.

I am glad that 7 out of my 10 core holdings have returned more than 10% thus far this year. Even with the divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics, the ratio of 5 out of 8 still looks good.

Looking at the table, it seems that I have a tendency to divest my non-core holding once it has done well. This is something which I wasn't aware of before this post. It will be something that I will take note of in future. Instead of divesting the counter after a strong performance, another option would be for me to spend more effort in understanding the counter and determine the possibility of turing it that into a core holding.

Punting on counters based on minimal information and uncertain business outlook continues to be a game of chance. Fu Yu went 10% up but Oceanus and Innotek went the other way. Not in a hurry to divest Oceanus and Innotek yet as amount put in was minimal, especially for Oceanus. Also, am still feeling positive of a possible turnaround next year or the year after next.

The table also highlighted the strong performance of my three counters in my CPF portfolio which returned 16% thus far. If this continues for the rest of the year, it will be the 9th consecutive year that my CPF portfolio beats STI ETF.

Allocation

Dividend vs Growth
With the divestment of two core holdings and exploration of the US market, the allocation looked quite different from the the first half of the year. Cash stands at a high of 15%. Dividend yield of portfolio based on cost is at a low of 3.4%. 

	Planned	Actual
Dividend	~ 60%	55%
REIT/ Business Trust	<= 30%	25%
Growth	~ 40%	30%
Punt	<=10%	3%
Cash	0%	15%

Singapore vs US

Being new to US market, I decided to allocated at most 15% of my fund to it till end of 2018. Currently, it stands at about 12% with 4% invested and 8% in cash.

Action

For the month of September, I have sold

• Dairy Farm at US$8.03 for a gain of 5.0%.
• Singapore O&G at $0.49 for a gain of 2.1%.
• mm2 Asia at $0.49 for a gain of 1.9%.
• Mapletree GCC Trust at $1.15 for a gain of 4.9%.

I have bought the first 3 in August due to their steep drop. Decided to divest them for a quick profit and re-invest them in other counters which I am more familiar with. As for Mapletree GCC, bought it last month with an incorrect understanding of the location of its HK property. Got lucky with it, so decided to take profit.

On the US Market, I have also sold 

• Cognex at US$114.45 for a gain of 3.4%.
• Mastercard at US$140.23 for a gain of 6.1%.
• Priceline at US$1840.60 resulting in a loss of 5.1%.
• Chipotle at US$307 resulting in a loss of 13.4%. 

Dug into the numbers and checked the PE and growth rate of my US counters. The current PE for the first 3 stocks are all much higher than its historical average and PEG are all above 2. Hence, decided to divest them. As for Chiptole, there is currently too much uncertainty and so decided to stay away from it for the moment.

I have added

• more Straco at $0.87. Continue to like its cash generating business. This article by the "Rock" in NextInsight provides a good reading.
• more Hong Kong Land at US$7.28. Same reason as initial purchase in August. Cheap P/B and good results.
• more 800 Super at $1.085 as it continued to trend lower after its announcement of its Q4 results. Two quarters of weaker performances but it has continued to increase its dividend. Looking for a better performance in 2018.
• more Japan Food at $0.435. Same reason as initial purchase - consistent dividend.
• iFAST at $0.87. Its price has slid from its high after announcing a strong 1H results. While its China business will take some time to break even, its other countries performance is growing very well.
• Hock Lian Seng at $0.445. High visibility due to strong record book. If the company is able to maintain its dividend of 2.5 cents, then the yield is about 5.6%.
• ComfortDelgro at $1.995. Bought a tiny stake as I felt that it is oversold. While Taxi business is under great pressure, rail and bus are still doing well. Due to a sudden turn in its share price, I sold it today at $2.08 for a small gain of 2.8%. 

You can click on July and Aug for my actions taken in those two months.

Core holdings

Core holdings are counters which I am more familiar with. These are counters which I am more confident of and have a more substantial holding (at least 5% of portfolio); hence I am more likely to hold them for a longer period of time.

The current average holding period is about 2.4 years, as compared to 0.5 years for the remaining holding.

Divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics and purchase of VICOM has resulted in partial change of core holdings. These 8 (out of 26) holdings make up 53% of my outlay cost.

1. Food Empire (9%) @ $0.46
2. Raffles Medical (8%) @ $1.41
3. Straco (8%) @ $0.85
4. Parkwaylife REIT (6%) @ $2.32
5. Valuetronics (6%) @ $0.54
6. Fraser Centrepoint Trust (6%) @ $2.03
7. VICOM (5%) @ $5.75
8. Starhill Global (5%) @ $0.70

Looking Ahead

For the remaining quarter, I am looking forward to dividend from various REITs, 800 Super, RMG, SingTel, UMS, iFast and Japan Food. 

I am also hopeful of good quarterly result from Food Empire, Straco and Valuetronics which might have a positive impact on their prices. Raffles Medical Group should report another quarter of muted performance.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, return for the year should be above 35%. With some luck, it might breach the 40% mark.

Top 10 Counters Quarterly Reporting (July to September)

With the exception of Micro-Mechanics, the rest of my top 10 counters have reported their quarterly report. I will update this post with MMs results when it is out later this month which I believe would be a good.

With the divestment of Best World in July, my recent purchase of VICOM has taken the last place of my top ten counters. I will post on the purchase of VICOM soon.

The tables below summarize their performances for the latest quarter.

A+

Valuetronics

Fantastic quarter by Valuetronics as it continues its turnaround with strong momentum in wireless lighting business and continuous growth in automotive segment. NPM average 6.9% over the last four quarters, much higher than the average of 6.2% in the preceding 4 quarters. A good decision made by management to exit LED business and go into automotive segment. 

The company also produces a presentation for 20181Q report which provides a good read of the company's business. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I expect the business to continue to do well for this year. Hence, I will continue to hold on to my shares.

Straco
Straco has a good quarter as its revenue and net profit continues to grow. With the exception of UWX, the rest of its attractions - SOA, SF and Lixing cable car saw higher visitor numbers.Straco's NPM has always been above 30% and with little capex, it is generate lots of cash that allows it to pare down its debt.

I am hopeful for an increase in dividend either for this financial year, if not by next financial year.


Micro-Mechanics
Micro-Mechanics reported a good quarter with another increase in dividend. However, I decided to divest it just before it announces its results. Hence, I will not update its performance.

A
ParkwayLife REIT
ParkwayLife continues to improve its DPU y-o-y and q-o-q. With the distribution of its divestment gain over the four quarters, the return is even more impressive. Management has good track record in improving DPU and has make gains from its divestment. They are also forward looking and in the latest report has indicated the decision to diversify their portfolio by investing in properties used for medical manufacturing & storage facilities & education facilities (target 5% of portfolio). 

The price has run up quite a bit in the last few months and it is indeed tempting to lock in some profit. However since I still believe in its long term growth, I will hold on to my current holdings.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
FCT reported a stable quarter with slight decline in its DPU. With its AEI for Northpoint 90% completed, DPU should improve next year. With a low gearing of only 30%, one possible catalyst would be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point within the next few years. 

I will look for opportunity to accumulate more if the price softens.

B
Food Empire
Food Empire continues its turnaround story with an exceptional increase in both revenue and net profit y-o-y. However, q-o-q the results is not as impressive and the its NPM is not very stable. 

In Q1, Indochina's weaker performance was attributed to a change in festive season date. However, Q2 results does not see a big change. Hence, as management highlighted in the report, they are facing tough competition. The strongest segment is their Other Markets which improves both y-o-y and q-o-q. 

Based on past record, it seems that their 2H performance is better than 1H. If they are able to achieve the improvement in Q3, I will up them to the A Band.

Singtel
Strong growth in revenue but net profit suffers due to intense competition in India. NPM remains high at above 20%. Singtel should be able to maintain its dividend and hopeful for special dividend when it records its gain from its divestment of Netlink.

VICOM
Revenue and net profit continues to drop due to decrease in car inspection because of COE cycle. However, company has pretty much maintain its dividend and has up its dividend policy to 90% payout.Strong net profit margin of above 20% and if it is able to maintain similar dividend for just a few more years, its revenue and net profit will grow again.

Will look for opportunity to increase stake.

C
Raffles Medical Group
Slightly better than 20171Q, with revenue up by 1.0% and net profit up by 0.7% as compared to 20161Q. Q-o-Q, the improvement is better. 

The report highlighted weaken demand from foreign patients but it still generated more than enough sufficient cash to support its expansion. Raffles Hospital Extension will open in Q4, Raffles Chongqing in 2018 second half and Raffles Shanghai in 2019 second half.

The market responded badly with this Q2 results, causing the price to drop to below $1.2. I will take the opportunity to further accumulate my holding at the correct price. Expect to see the benefits from its expansion from 2020 onwards.

Starhill Global REIT
DPU continues to drop due to poor performance for its office segment and AEI for Plaza Arcade. As with Q1 report, I stay satisfied with the current DPU and actions taken by the management.  I expect a better performance in 2018, hence may buy more if the price is good.

Looking Ahead

Having achieved a good first half results, the question is how to improve or sustain it? Best World, Food Empire and Valuetronics were the key drivers of my first half performance. Will they continue to do well in the next few years? Will other counters take over the driver seat?

I decided to make a prediction on the above questions base on my current, limited knowledge of their business and gut feel. Of course, this is speculative in nature but it provides a rough idea how my portfolio might continue to grow in the next few years.

I must say I am quite satisfied after the exercise as there seem to be sufficient stories to keep my portfolio going. What about the other counters that did not even appear once in this post? I will write about them in the next post.

20172H
Food Empire - Turnaround should continue with positive results.

Valuetronics - Both CE and ICE segments will continue their growth momentum.

Best World - China story is in tact and should continue to power its growth.

SingTel - Launch of Netlink IPO should have a positive impact.

Micromechanics - Continue to benefit from its strategic decision to focus on semiconductor.

ISEC? Improvement in results, partly contributed by the acquisition of JLM clinics in 2016?

2018
Food Empire - Growth rate should be lower as compared to 2017. Expect growth from other markets, especially from the ingredient segment.

Valuetronics - At least for first half of the year with their automotive segment continues to gain traction.

Best World - This year should see more conversion of China export model to direct sales. Margin should improve.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - DPU boosted by Northpoint AEI in 2017.

Starhill Global REIT - DPU boosted by completion of Plaza Arcade redevelopment by 20181Q. 

Straco? Will it increase its dividend?

Kingsmen Creatives? Will this be the turnaround year?

Raffles Medical Group? Unlikely, but will the new extension start to make a difference?

Duty Free International? Expansion or increase dividend from their cash hoard?

2019
Straco - Either acquisition or increase dividend if it did not do so in 2018.

Capital Mall Trust - DPU boosted from re-opening of Funan in 2018.

Raffles Medical Group? Contribution from Extension and Raffles Chongqing but may face start-up cost pressure from Raffles Shanghai.

Best World? Will it continue to grow?

Frasers Centrepoint Trust? Acquisition of Waterway Point? or in 2020 or 2021?

Starhill Global REIT? Orchard office turnaround?

Kingsmen Creatives? Continue its turnaround?

Frasers Logistic and Industries Trust? More acquisition?

2020/2021
Raffles Medical Group - Reaping the fruit of its expansion.

Straco - Further increase in dividend.

Top 10 Counters Quarterly Reporting (April to June)

All my counters have reported their performance for the period. Below is a short summary of my top 10 counters' performances. 

Food Empire reported its 20171Q results on 11 May. An excellent set of results as its revenue is up by 23.6% and net profit up by 57.2%. The performance is attributed to appreciation of Russian Ruble against the USD, change of business model in Kazakhstan and CIS markets, and higher sales in ingredient segment. The drop in Indochina market is due to different festive timing. 

Looking forward to the next quarter results with eyes on its Indochina and ingredient segment.

RMG reported its 20171Q results on 23 April. As expected, its revenue and net profit are flat, dipping by 1.7% as compared to 21061Q. Its expansion plan is within timeline with Raffles Hospital Extension to open in Q4. The group also recently acquired a land with an in-construction building in Chongqing for a 700-bed international tertiary hospital. This will be completed by 2Q2018, earlier than the Shanghai Hospital what is slated to be ready by end 2018.

I think the group is doing well as it is able to maintain its profit amid its expansion. I will continue to hold on to my stake and participate in its script dividend (latest at $1.26) scheme. Expect to see the benefits from its expansion from 2019 or 2020.

PLife reported its 20171Q on 24 April. DPU for the quarter is up by 9.6% due to its divestment gain in 2016. Recurring DPU goes up by 2.2%. As highlighted in its presentation, it has strong capital structure. There is no long term re-financing cost till 2019, interest cover of 10.0 times and gearing at 36.7%. 

While its share price is trading at a premium to NAV, I believe the quality of this REIT deserves that. This will stay in my portfolio for a long time.

Straco reported a decent set of 20171Q results on 9 May. Revenue is up by 4.2% with net profit up by 6.9%. It has reported a double digit growth in the visitation number to SOA, while number of visitors to UWX grows by 9.7%. Singapore Flyer's visitor number is stable but revenue grow increased on better yield and F&B revenue.

As mentioned before, I like its cash business and am hopeful that dividend payout will increase in a few years time when they pare down their debt.

Best World International Limited
Best World reported another excellent 20171Q results on 9 May. Revenue is up by 27.0% and net profit up by a whooping 63.1%. The excellent performance is attributed to the tremendous growth in of 110% in its export segment (read China market). The increase is attributed to backlog and inventories building as demand is expected to be high. It could be that while Q2 results continue to be positive, it might not see the jump seen in Q1. Slight concern is the drop in Taiwan DS for 1Q but management has guided subdue growth for the year.

My stance remains unchanged. China market provides huge potential for its growth but it has garnered lots of attention and price has gone up a lot since the award of its China DS license. Expect volatile price movement and huge drop if any of the coming quarters perform below expectation.

Valuetronics reported its 2017 full year results on 25 May. After deciding to exit mass LED market in 2015 and moving into automotive sector in2016, Valuetronics finally turnaround its results. Revenue is up by 16.5% and net profit grows by 27.9%, one of the highest since it has listed. The improvement is also attributed to a surge in order on wireless LED since 21063Q. While I am not in the industry, I believe it will go in the way of mass LED after a few years. Nevertheless, it's good business for the next few years. The group is undergoing qualification by another automaker and expect to obtain approval by late FY2018. 

With 1-to-10 bonus and maintaining its dividend, this had indirectly increase my dividend by 10%. I am hopeful of the group's performance for the next few years, so will continue to hold on to my stake.

FCT reported its 20172Q on 25 April. Revenue dipped by 2.9% and net profit income by 3.3%. However, tt has maintained its DPU at 3.04 cents. All these are achieved despite AEI work for Northpoint with average occupancy of about 63% during this period.

Will continue to hold FCT for its resilient position.

Singtel reported its full year results on 18 May. Revenue dipped by 1.5% for the year and net profit excluding exceptional item goes up by 0.9%. Singtel continues to pay a total of 17.5 cents of dividend at a payout ratio of 73%. Singapore and Australia provided stable return but India Airtel affected by price war due to new operator.

Will re-evaluate position after its Netlink IPO.

Micro-Mechanics reported its 20173Q results on 28 April. For the second consecutive quarters, it has improved its revenue and earning. For 9M, revenue is up by 9.0% and net profit up by 12.8%. It does seem that their strategical review last year to focus the engineering, development and investment efforts of the Group’s five factories on serving the semiconductor industry is working. Utilisation rate has gone up to 59% for Q3.

It seems that Micro-Mechanics will do well for the next few years and with its dividend policy of not less than 40%, this should continue to be a good investment.

Starhill Global reported its 20173Q results on 27 April. Gross revenue dipped by 0.6%, net profit income dipped by 0.9%, income available for distribution dropped by 3.1% and DPU dropped by 6.3%. This has been a tough year from SG Reit due to lower occupancy of office space especially at Wisma Atria, and re-positioning of the China mall. The positive comes from Lot 10 rejuvenation and upcoming AEI at Plaza Arcade.

I am satisfied with the current DPU and actions taken by the management. Should see better performance in 2018.

2017 1Q Performance

I have decided that I will only update on my performance quarterly. Mimicking reporting on SGX. I believe this is a good move as this will subtly push me to spend more time in analyzing the business rather than the stock prices.

Performance

NAV of portfolio grew from $3.78 (30 Dec 2016) to $4.74, providing a return of 25.4% for the quarter. This beats my benchmark STI ETF which returned 10.3% based on its price appreciation from $2.94 to $3.19 and dividend of $0.053 over the same period. 

This quarter's performance is better than the preceding quarter which returned -4.0% and also better 2016 1Q which returned 3.6%.

The fantastic performance is largely attributed to Best World which has almost doubled this year. This was supported by good return from most stocks in my core holdings such as Valuetronics (34%), Food Empire (22%) , Micro-mechanics (17%), FCT (13%) and Plife (8%), Singtel (6%).

The two counters from core holdings that underperform are Raffles Medical (-0.2%) and Straco (-0.7%). This is expected as their 2016 results are flat. I am still holding on to them as their long term fundamentals are still in tact.

Beyond the core holdings, two other stocks did well for the quarter. They are 800 Super (30%) and AReit (14%).

Allocation
Allocation is not far away from planned. With this current allocation, dividend yield based on initial cost stands at 4.6%

	Planned	Actual
Dividend	~ 60%	60.3%
REIT/ Business Trust	<= 30%	27.8%
Growth	~ 40%	33.9%
Punt	<=10%	5.4%
Cash	0%	5.8%

Action

There is not much activity for core holdings. The only transaction was the addition of Food Empire shares which move it into my core holdings. I believe in its turnaround and it should continue to do well for the next two years.

There are a lot more action for punting. These are my transactions for March.

• Bought and sold Fu yu (up 10%) and City Neon (up 5%)
• Bought SPH as I believe that the press giant will be able to find solutions on the drop of advertisement revenue.
• Bought Keong Hong due to the detail analysis by various IN users. I think this stock has the potential of doing well.
• Bought Oceanus. Pure punting. Like what I read about the company. New CEO is cutting cost and re-structuring debts. Prepare to lose all but if CEO is really able to turn the company's fortune, the upside is high too.
• Sold Dutech as it does not generate sufficient interest for me (-0.2%)

Core holdings

Addition of Food Empire in March has moved it into the top 8. Listing the 9th stock as its cost is not that far off from the 8th stock.

1. Raffles Medical @ $1.48
2. Parkwaylife Reit @ $2.32
3. Straco @ $0.84
4. Best World @ $0.60
5. Valuetronics @ $0.56
6. Fraser Centrepoint Trust @ $2.01
7. Food Empire @ $0.38
8. SingTel @ $3.82
9. Mirco-mechanics @ $0.91

February Portfolio

As mentioned in the previous post, I will report on my portfolio with a slightly different format. I hope this provides clarity on the performance of my portfolio and the information will be more useful.

Performance

The past two months, market has performed well and my benchmark STI ETF has returned about 7.3%. My portfolio also has a good run and it has returned 17.4%. Current dividend yield stands at 4.2%.

Allocation

	Planned	Actual
Dividend	~ 60%	56.2%
REIT/ Business Trust	<= 30%	26.9%
Growth	~ 40%	30.8%
Punt	<=10%	5.0%
Cash	0%	13.0%

Action

I have provided update on my actions for January and February earlier. You can read them in these two earlier posts:

• January and February portfolio

• Update on February portfolio

Core holdings

I have decided to report on my top 8 holdings based on initial cash outlay. I will also indicate the purchased price as it might affect the buying/selling decision psychologically even though theoretically, we should just value the company using the current price.

1. Raffles Medical @ $1.48
2. Parkwaylife Reit @ $2.32
3. Straco @ $0.84
4. Best World @ $0.60
5. Valuetronics @ $0.56
6. Fraser Centrepoint Trust @ $2.01
7. SingTel @ $3.82
8. Mirco-mechanics @ $0.91