9th May 2009 Update II Company Review (Cash portfolio)

As mentioned in the earlier post, YTD my cash portfolio is 9.4% up.  Currently, holding on to five counters Celestial Nutrifood, Kingsmen Creative, Pan United Corporation, Fibrechem and Thomson Medical.  The following is a review of their 2008 Performance and development this year.  

(a) Kingsmen Creative (Initial Purchase Dec 2006)

Kingsmen posted an increase of revenue and net profit by 30.4% and 51.0% respectively.  This is a very good set of results in a year of turmoil.  The group net profit margin has increased from 2.5% in 2005 to a credible 7.4% in the current year with ROE hitting 31.1%.  I must say that I am impressed by this MICE Company with a market cap of only 66 millions.  The management has guided that 2009 will be another strong year with contributions from Universal Studios and F1 Singapore in the pipeline.  What is exciting is its presence in both Greater China and Middle East.  If the expansion plans go well, the group will continue to grow in the coming years.  

With a dividend of 3 cents per share declared this year, my dividend yield stands at 10.5%.  I am looking into increasing my stake in this group soon.  

(b) Celestial Nutrifood (Initial Purchase May 2007)
Despite the challenging condition in 2008, the group has managed to grow its revenue and net profit by 27.9% and 19.1% respectively.  This was achieved through the increase of its selling price of products which did not affect the sales volume in the industry.  This is indeed good news as it shows that the industry is in favor of the group’s product.  The group decides to continue to commence on the production of two new health food and beverage products in 1H2009 – high protein nutrient beverages and high protein nutrient powder.  

A concern of the group is the potential redemption of RMB 1226 mil bonds on 12 June 2009.  The group has only RMB 812 mil in cash.  If we account for all current assets and liabilities, the group has net current liabilities of RMB 63.5 mil.  The management has shared that they are on the active look out for the re-financing of this potential redemption of the bonds but has yet to finalize any deal.  With only about a month to go, this is a growing concern.  Hopefully when the group announces its 20091Q results, this issue can be resolved.

(c) Pan United Corporation (Initial Purchase May 2008)

Revenue and net profit increased by 26.6% and 50.5% respectively.   The group’s Basic Building and Materials (BBM) and Shipping divisions have delivered growth; while the Port and Logistics division shows stable contribution.  Looking ahead, with Singapore’s strong pipeline of infrastructure, industrial and public residential projects; the group BBM division will continue to do well.  The shipping division is getting 7 new vessels in mid 2009 which should be well deployed for the year.  Port and Logistic division should continue be stable with the hope that China stimulus package will negate the slowdown in demand.  

A total of 3.8 cents per share was declared for dividend this year, my dividend yield stands at 7.6%.  I will continue to hold on to my 25 lots as the current price does not entice on further purchase or selling.

(d) FibreChem Technologies Limited (Initial Purchase October 2008)

After reading an article in Pulses on the fabric industry in China, decided to take a stake in FibreChem and Li Heng.  Both reported respectable results for their 9 months in 2008.  But the bombshell came in Feb 2009 just before FB announce their 2008 results, that the counter will be suspended as the auditor has difficulties in finalizing its trade receivable and cash balances.  The CEO has since resigned and independent investigator and financial advisor has been appointed.  The group was also granted an extension to the date it will announce its 2008 results to 31 May. 

As for Li Heng, it has announced a good set of results for year 2008 and declared a total dividend of 2.5 cents per share.  However, as guided by management 20084Q result is dismal and so will the coming 20091Q results.   As mentioned in the earlier post, I have since taken profit on this counter but will keep it in my radar.

(e) Thomson Medical Center (Initial Purchase December 2008)Thomson Medical has been on my radar for quite some time.   However, its valuation wasn’t quite attractive enough until this financial turmoil.  At my purchase price of $0.47, its PE based on its 2008 results is 12.3x.  Still no way near the single digit PE by other groups but for a health care group, this is acceptable to me.  I was choosing between TMC and Raffles Medical to invest in then and went with my gut feeling on TMC.  Raffles Medical has since increased by 50% since 2008 while TMC only increased by 7%.  Wrong decision?  Maybe, but I like both of them as healthcare is here to stay and will be at least provide a stable return in Singapore.  

For its 20091H results announced on 7th April, TMC posted a 8.3% and 5.3% increase in revenue and net profit respectively.  The group has completed renovation of first phase of Level 5 inpatient ward in 2009Q2 and secondary phase is expected to complete in April 2009.  This is expected to improve margin of TMC as it charges a higher rate with the renovated ward.  The group has also entered a joint venture to commence operation on Thomson Women Cancer Centre which is line with group’s objective to grow organically in the management of women’s health.  The group consultancy project in Vietnam is also progressing as planned with its target completion in third quarter 2009.  The hospital management services contract will take effect when it commences operation in Q1 2010.  With all this expansion progressing well, I am confident of the hospital growth in the coming years.

8th May 2009 Update I My portfolio performance

More than half a year has passed since my last update. 

Someone commented in the Wallstraits forum early this year that the forum is getting dead with little new postings and discussions.   Is there a correlation between number of posts and how the market is doing?  Apparently, it seems that I am suffering from the same psychological effect, with a drop in interest in updating during the past half a year when my portfolio paints a bloody picture.  Yes, there were occasions where I wanted to update but did not get down to it eventually.  Here I am finally but is it coincidental that this timing matches the rally on STI over the past 2 weeks or with the blood coming off my portfolio, I feel better to write about it.  In any case, it’s necessary for me to constantly reviewing my position since I wanted this to my alternative source of income which will help me to achieve financial independency.  So here I go.

As mentioned in October 2008, 2008 was a tough year and both my cash and CPF portfolio slid further to end up 38.8% and 48.4% lower than 2007.  Things did not look better early this year especially my cash portfolio which continued to drop by another 30% by February and NAV was lower than $1 (initial position in 2002) before it showed a better performance in March and April.  The last two weeks’ rally has really been amazing, resulting in a YTD 9.4% and 30.8% gain for my cash and CPF portfolio respectively.  Again, this show how hard it is to predict the market and how one can just miss the boat if he wants to catch the bottom.

Action from Oct 2008 to today
With limited cash, I did not do much trading.  I added Thomson Medical Centre (10 lots at $0.473) to my portfolio in December 2008 as I like their story especially when quite a number of my friends giving birth there.  With its expansion in Vietnam, it seems that the company is on track for further years of growth.

I also increased my stake in Celestial (average down to $0.326 with 50 lots at $0.11) in March 2009.  This was an exception and risky purchase as it would make Celestial occupying near to 40% of my portfolio.  With the news that its outstanding bonds might be redeemed by June this year and the company has yet to confirm the re-financing plan, it could mean that my stake could be wiped out.  I decided to take the risk since the offer was just too good to resist.  I offloaded 50 lots at $0.21 yesterday realizing a loss of $5833 for this counter.  While I am still confident of the company in next few years, the fact that re-financing is still unconfirmed with only 1 ½ months to go is not re-assuring.  I will decide when the company announces its 20091Q results whether to hold on to the other 50 lots or to cut loss.

I also increased my stakes of Kingsmen Creative (10 lots at $0.335) and Pan United Corporation (10 lots at $0.35) in March 09 and December 09 respectively.  Both companies did well last year and visibility is clear in the near future with attractive dividend yield of 10% and 7.5% respectively.

I bought Li Heng in October 08, increased my stakes in March 09 and sold all yesterday with a profit of $1609.   While I like its story, it is expected that 091Q results will be bad as indicated by management, so with little visibility, I decided to take profit.  The company will remain in my radar.

Sold Lantrovision today to realize a loss of $836.  The counter was brought for punting but decided to cash out so as to use the cash for investment in better companies.

The biggest story in my cash portfolio must be FibreChem which was suspended in March as the audit was unable to account for its cash balance.  CEO has resigned and pledged to assist in the investigation and extension of releasing of 2008 report was granted till June 09.  Worse case scenario will be $10 k wipe out.  This shows the importance of diversification as one will never know what will happen even if past records of company were good.

My CPF portfolio has remained stable with no purchase or selling of any of my stocks and unit trusts.

5th Oct 2008 Update

I did not continue with what I started out to do in August in writings.  With much turmoil in the market in September, I have thought about some of my positions in my current portfolio and sold some of the counters to raise cash for purchase of other more attractive counters.

Sold
Inter-roller:  I sold my stakes in Inter-roller at a loss of $2959.  I first purchased this company thinking that a drop in their profit is a one-off event.  As updated earlier on, 2008 visibility is low and while in recent months, it has won contracts in South America and I still believe in its management, in short term it will have difficulty turning around.

KODA: Yes, I like this company for the honesty of the management, the way they communicated their results through their Annual Report and statements through SGX.  They have done well over the past few years and attracted more clients along the way.  However, with its large reliance on US-based customers, its performance will suffer (in fact already suffered for this year) going ahead.  This will still be on my RADAR even after I sold it at a loss of $3116.

The Hour Glass: Sold at a loss of $1761 to raise cash for other purchases.

Spore Land (CPF): Sold at a loss of $5752.  Finally gave it up as I really know nuts about the property scene.  An expensive lesson for me.

With all the selling done last week, I have made a realized loss of $2800 for this year, my first realized loss since year 2000.  YTD, my cash portfolio dropped by 27.8%, the largest since I have started in year 2000 too.  For CPF portfolio, I suffered a drop of 32.8%.  My first negative return since I started investing CPF in 2002.
2008 has really proved to be a difficult year for me and again showed me that there’s so much more to learn in investing.  On hind side, I could have hold on to my cash for a longer period after earning some profits from Pokka and sold Inter-roller and KODA faster knowing that their fundamentals have changed for 2008 and would need a longer time to turn-over with the economic turmoil.  On the positive side, I have been pretty emotional unaffected (ie, I don’t feel panicky) by the drop in market and portfolio values.  I just wish I have sold out earlier and retain more cash as advised by many forummers.

To buy
While the market movement has caused losses to my portfolio, it also provided opportunity to purchase other companies at a much lower price.  I will be purchasing Fibrechem a company that manufacture different forms synthetic fibres from polyester to microfibre leather.  Listed in 2004, the company’s net profit margin and ROE has been above 20%.  Net profit has a CAGR of 36.3% over the past 5 years.  While margin might be squeeze and market might be tighter the coming two years, the company is poised to grow further with their microfiber leather.  At the current price of $0.385, I will be purchasing the company at a PE of 3.8x.  This is cheap valuation, especially when the company has $0.05 per share and a market cap of $400 mil.

I will also average down on the following counters, Celestial, SIA Engineering and Pan United.

As for my CPF Portfolio, I will average down on First REIT and Metro.
Other counters which are on my radar include:
Li Heng: Nylon producer listed in March 2008 at a price 0f $0.80.  Now $0.375 at a PE of 3.4x.
Beauty China: One of my favourite counters before I sold it out at $1.14 last Sep.  Now at $0.52 at a PE of 5.6
PFood: Another of my favourite counter. In fact the steep drop of its price to $0.485 last Tuesday was on of the trigger to sell out some of my counters for a better buy.  Its price has returned to $0.61 at a PE of 5.3.

On Thursday, I have also used CPF to purchase the following unit thrusts ($5000 each)
Aberdeen China Opportunities
Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets
LionGlobal Japan Growth
LionGlobal Infinity US500 Stock Index SGD

I viewed this current economic turmoil a good opportunity to re-enter the market.  Will the market drop another 20% to 30%? Yes, it might happen and I will average down further if that happens.

23rd Aug Review of Position 1

As the market continues to trend lower and my year-to-date returns negatively for almost every counter, I decided to turn my attention away from the near term prices and re-focuses again on the fundamentals of the companies which I have invested in.  I would look at their vision, mission statements, the direction and strategies used by these companies.

And this exercise should assist in me in position I will take on my portfolio which I would make in the coming weeks.

(a) Celestial Nutrifood

No explicit vision, mission statement is found in the company’s latest AR.  However, in the corporate information, the company states that “The operating ethos of Celestial is to provide products of the highest quality”. 

It seems that the company has been doing well in this sense.  The company is the only soy bean manufacturer in Heilongjiang province to be invited to develop the Soy Bean Zone in 2004 and it has successful completed Phase 1 of the project.  In 2007, Celestial’s brand “Sun Moon Star” (日月星) was awarded “Asia Top 500 Brands” (亚洲品牌500强) for its overall excellence and innovation in branding at the Second Asia Brand Ceremony (第二届亚洲品牌盛典).  In addition, Celestial’s Executive Chairman and CEO Mr. Ming Dequan (明德泉) received the prestigious “Asia Brand People of the Year” (亚洲品牌年度人物大奖) award, for his entrepreneurial spirit and visionary leadership.

It seems to me that the company will continue to do well in the near term as it expands its product range since last year and with a higher acceptance of its product from both retail and industrial customers even after it has increased its selling price twice over the past year.   While I continue to like this company, I might trim my holding if I need the cash for other counters.

(b) KODA

VISION

To be a reputable, profitable and significant global original design manufacturer of furniture

MISSION

We must be the most effective value-for-money manufacturer.

We must remain design-relevant.

We must invest in Research & Development.

We must ensure that our products remain affordable and accessible.

We must ensure we have the right people with the right skills.

We must deliver to our shareholders value and investment comfort.

31st May Mid Year Review I

Yes, I miss my quarterly review.  *spank* myself once for the lack of discipline.  No matter how busy I am, I must find time for this! 

Cash Portfolio

In general, last half a year has been roller-coaster ride for my cash portfolio.  The sub-prime fear has driven my portfolio down by as much as 20% in the first quarter of the year with some of my stocks dropping by as much as 40%.  Even to date, with my portfolio 2.0% lower than December 2007, I have three stocks trading at 40% below my purchase prices.  I am glad that the large fluctuation has not affected me too much emotionally.  I was calm and looking for opportunity to purchase some counters at a lower price and holding on to some cash as I am uncertain of the outlook of other counters.

(a) Celestial Nutrifood

Celestial is a counter that fluctuates a lot due to high trading volume.  I have taken the opportunity (or you can say it’s risk) by dollar-averaging this counter by 2 separate purchases in Jan and Feb, bringing the average purchase price to $0.9 from the initial price of $1.28.  My confidence with the company lies with its success in its execution of phase 1 expansion plan; ability to pass the higher cost to the customer; visible expansion plan in the next 1 or 2 years.  Couple with the low PE (6.8 based on 2007 results at $0.9), it’s a bargain.

The company announced its FY 2007 results in Feb with revenue growth of 55.4% and net profit growth of 13.3% with net profit margin at 23.3% (lower than 2006 31.9%).  The lower net profit growth and margin is attributed to the higher finance cost on the issue of convertible bonds which will reduce in time.  The company declares a $0.02 dividend which translates to a 2.22% dividend yield for me.

In May, the company announced a positive 20081Q results with both revenue and net profit 50% higher than 20071Q.  The growth is attributed to higher utilization rate, expansion in sales and higher pricing.   The company’s 2008 plan for the four High Protein Nutrient products are on schedule; and the manufacturing of biodiesel is in progress too but Directors advice a change in input, using of other materials instead of soybean oil as the price of soybean oil has increased.  Overall, the long term market for soybean-based products is favorable.

As mentioned this stocks fluctuates very much.  From a high of $1.4 plus (last may/jun), the price drops to a low of $0.56 (in Jan / Feb).  It is “scary” as I see the price plummet down; yet on the other hand I wonder why is it hit so badly when the fundamental is intact.  And the price goes back all the way to $0.90 now with no change in the company’s fundamental as compared to 3 months ago.

My holding is break-even now and with this high amount of fluctuation, I might consider offloading some of my holdings when the price hits $1.35 (50% gain).

(b) Midsouth

A company which I felt has potential for a high growth in the next few years but the market did not think so.  Against the muted response by the market on the counter, the company has decided to delist from SGX with an offer of $0.8 per share which is still lower than my purchase of $0.815 *sigh*.   I do feel a bit gutted as I can see its growth potential in the next 3 to 5 years but I cannot fault the management’s offer which is a premium of 30 to 40% over its average trading price over the last few months.

I have since sold the counter at $0.775, so that I can utilize my cash for other potential candidates.  Also, if the deal does not go through and the company fails to take it private, I expect the share price to trend downwards and provide me another opportunity to purchase the counter cheaper.

(c) The Hour Glass

The Hour Glass reported a revenue growth of 20% and net profit growth of 63.8% over 2007.  Net profit margin improves to 6.2% with ROE hitting 17.4%.  The company expects a slowing in sales momentum for 2008 and decides to seize this opportunity to position itself for growth in the next 3 years which I take this as a positive move for long term growth. While company guides that there could be a slow down, I personally feel that the sentiment might not hurt the rich as much as the not-so rich.

Since my purchase in December last year, the company did a 2-for-1 split in Feb, hence now I hold 10 lots of the counter which I have no intention to divest in the near future.  A $0.02 dividend was declared for FY2007 which is slightly disappointing as I have expected more but given that the company needs the cash for expansion, it is acceptable.

(d) Pacific Andes

The company just reported its full year results on 30^th May.  Revenue and net profit grew 32.3% and 23.2% respectively.  At current price, the company is trading at about 9x is earning.  It has declared a dividend of $0.0207 which gives me a dividend yield of 3.1 %.
 
As mentioned previously on my uncertainty of its debt structure, I have not loaded more of its shares even though its price is now 30% lower than my purchase price.  At the same time, I am in no hurry to off-load this counter as I am still impressed by its growth rate.  To sum it up, I am pretty neutral towards this counter at this moment.

2007 in Review

Cash Portfolio

2007 has been a good year for my cash portfolio. NAV of my cash portfolio has increased by 49.4% from $1.44 to $2.15.  I have no confidence that I will repeat this performance in 2008 but I believe that in long term (10 to 15 years), getting a compounded return of 10% from stock can be quite easily done.  With this record-breaking performance, my compounded return over the 8 years is 10.1%.

The best move of the years must be the selling of People’s Food.  PFood was sold at an average price of $2 after it announced shortage of pigs.  Since then, the price has retracted to $1.11, which translates to a PE of 10 but I will continue to monitor the situation before getting back to the counter.

The mistake of the year must be the series of transaction near end July.  Instead of holding on to the build up in cash position, I hurried to purchase a couple of counters which does not offer really good values and results in a loss of $2.2 k in a month.

Currently, I am still positive of long term prospect of Celestial, Pacific Andes despite sitting on paper loss.  I am confident of performance of Hour Glass, Pokka, Kingsmen Creative and Inter Roller going into 2008.  As for Mid-south, Lantrovision and Koda, I am neutral on them.

Companies that are within my radar are FSL (for its high dividend yield), Apex Pal (bold expansion plan), Pan United (benefiting from construction boom), Beauty China (re-entry if valuation becomes attractive again)

CPF Portfolio

NAV increased by 10.3% from $2.19 to $2.41.  This is the lowest YTY increase for the past 5 years but it is still much better than CPF return of 2.5%.   Compounded return for the 5 years now stand at 19.3%.

The portfolio would have better showing if I had not sold off Sincere to raise cash for Jardine C&C and this mistake is compounded by the subsequent selling of Jardine in September.  Again, I need to be discipline in holding to a winning counter instead of realizing the gain!

For the currentlportfolio, I am confident of a steady return in terms of dividend at an average yield of 6.22%.  Any positive move in price will come from market revaluating the counters due to NAV (Metro, Singlan).  Food Junction remains a wild card which I might dispose of if there are better buying opportunities.

Company Review: Celestial Nutrifood

Established in 1997, Celestial NutriFoods Limited is a leading manufacturer of soy protein-based food & beverage products.  The company is invited to co-develop the first phase of the Hi-Tech Soybean Zone project initiated by the Daqing Government in 2004.  Phase 1 of the development has since been complete and operations commenced in June 2006.  It has boosted Celestial capacity and enables the Group to introduce three new products, namely soy functional protein, biochemical feedstuff and lecithin.  The group is also exploring the production of bio-diesel fuel using soybean oil, a by-product of the manufacturing process.

The company net profit margin is approximately 25% with ROE of around 25%.  For the past 5 years, company has achieved a blistering CAGR of 50% on both revenue and net profit.  This is largely attributed to the completion of Soybean Zone project last year.   The growth is expected to continue for 2007 but the earning will be dragged down by non-cash convertible bond interest expense.  The company has a gearing of 87.5%.  The chairman and CEO Ming Dequan holds approximately 28% of the total shares.

I made a mistake on this company in Dec 2004 by selling it off when the market did not react positively to its expansion plan.  Purchasing it at $1.41 in May is not exactly cheap but with its track record over the last 3 years, I am more confident of the management in delivering further growth of the company with careful handling of the company’s debt.

20071H Results

The company has reported a good set of results in Aug with sales growing at 72.1% and net core earning at 38.5%.  Net earning decreases by 3.3% due to non-cash component of interest expenses on convertible bonds.  The company expansion plan is on track and is expected to reach its target of 70% utilization rate of facility.