Lots of action this month. Divested a few counters but bought quite a bit with the $$$ from divestment of Best World.
Out of Favour
Divested Kingsmen Creatives at the same price I bought. This is the turnaround story that is not working out yet. It reported a poor Q2 and I decided to wait for a clearer picture before re-entering again.
Divested half my stake in ISEC at 0.315. Tiny profit. Still an interesting outfit but its growth isn't exciting enough for it to occupy the middle of my portfolio. Hence decided to hold less and watch how the story unfolds.
Sold Capital Mall Trust at 2.10. It has risen more than 10% from my purchased price. Covered 2 years of dividend. Will recycle cash to other counters that offer higher dividend yield. Might re-enter when it offers a better yield.
Sold Mircro-mechanics at 1.41. Bought purely for its track record for dividend but its price has gone up to 7 years of dividend due to its good performance. Decided to divest it as its dividend yield dropped below 5%. Surprised me with a second rise of dividend this year and with a 8 cents dividend, yield gone up to 5.6%. On hind side, should have continued to hold on to it but actually felt pretty neutral about it. Probably am satisfied with the above expectation return from the counter.
Up the Dividend
Bought a lot more counters especially REIT to increase my annual dividend. Also, I like their outlook from next year onward.
Added Fraser Centrepoint Trust at 2.07. With the AEI of North Point completing this year, next year DPU should increase. Assuming a 12 cents DPU next year, it will translate to 5.8% yield and potential upside if DPU is even higher. Possible catalyst could be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point.
Added Starhill Global Reit at 0.76. While Orchard office occupancy could still pose a problem, AEI at Plaze Arcade in Australia is expected to be completed in 20181Q. China property would have a more stable distribution with the completion of renovation by 20174Q. Expecting a minimal 4.8 cents DPU next year. This translates to a 6.3% yield.
Bought CDL Hospitality Trust at 1.575. I have bought and sold CDLHT a couple of times for the past 4 years. Win some, lose some and overall still negative. Betting on the improvement of its hotels in the next two years. Assuming a 10 cents DPU, dividend yield is approximately 6.3%.
Bought Mapletree Commercial Trust at 1.55. A retail and office reit which I have missed for the longest time. Its DPU has been increasing since its listing. Estimating a 9 cents DPU which will give a 5.8% yield.
Bought VICOM at 5.81 (cd) and 5.65 (xd). A subdue Q2 results but with immediate effect it is paying out at least 90% of its earning as dividend. It gives more certainty that the company can maintain its dividend for the next two to three years even when revenue dropped due to increasing de-registration of cars. From 2020/21 onwards, it should see an increase in its revenue and income again with more vehicles requiring checking.
Buying into the Sell-down
Quite a number of counters were sold down for the past month, for good or questionable reasons. The sell-down provided me an opportunity to buy some shares of the counter which I think could do well in the future.
Bought Dairy Farm at USD7.45. The company has announced a decent Q2 recently and turnaround seems to gathering speed with good progress in China. The price was beaten down by 2% to 3% in one of the trading day and I deem it as an opportunity to add some.
Bought InnoTek at 0.34. The stock is beaten down because it reported a poor Q2. However, 1H is still an improvement. While the remaining year might remain a challenge, effort has been put in by management to turn the company around. Initiated the position with the belief that the turnaround will come in 2018 or 2019.
Bought mm2 Asia at 0.475. The price has dropped sharply after its GV deal did not get through. Nevertheless, it reported a good 1Q results and I decided to take a punt on it.
Bought HKLand at USD 7.46. Read about its cheap P/B and good results. Hence, decided to take a stake when its price has dropped by about 5% from its recent high.
Bought UMS at 0.995. The price has dropped sharply after guidance of moderate performance in 2H. Nimble a bit as I believe it will maintain its dividend which is a tasty 6%.
Bought 800 Super at 1.12. The price has dropped after a poor Q3. The price weakened further just before it announced its full year results. Took the opportunity to re-enter the counter which I have divested at 1.26 in April.
Bought Singapore O&G at 0.44. The price has dropped sharply after its weak Q2 results. Took a punt on it as company is still profitable and should get better results moving forward.
US Market
Most of my purchase decision for the US markets come from the recommendation of MF subscription services. Unlike my local counters, I did not do as much homework on them. While I think that the valuations of the counters are high, I like their future stories hence my stake in them. All my purchases are small and will slowly wait for opportunity to accumulate more shares in the future.
Bought Vail Resort at USD210.51. Luxury ski resorts operator. It has been growing through acquisition and opportunities to grow is still available. Its plan to keep its resort busy all-year round is working out well with Epic Discovery activities coming on more than one location.
Bought Cognex at USD105. Machine-Vision systems are used all around the world. Growth expected to continue.
Bought Priceline at USD1870. Good Q2 results but market is spooked by its lower Q3 guidance. Taking this opportunity to have one bite on it.
Bought Intuitive Surgical at USD935. Intuitive Surgical have been growing for many years and its recurring income has increased. Decided to buy 2 shares to participate in its growth even though it has a high PE of 44x.
Showing posts with label kingsmen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kingsmen. Show all posts
Monday, 28 August 2017
Saturday, 1 July 2017
Looking Ahead
Having achieved a good first half results, the question is how to improve or sustain it? Best World, Food Empire and Valuetronics were the key drivers of my first half performance. Will they continue to do well in the next few years? Will other counters take over the driver seat?
I decided to make a prediction on the above questions base on my current, limited knowledge of their business and gut feel. Of course, this is speculative in nature but it provides a rough idea how my portfolio might continue to grow in the next few years.
I must say I am quite satisfied after the exercise as there seem to be sufficient stories to keep my portfolio going. What about the other counters that did not even appear once in this post? I will write about them in the next post.
20172H
Food Empire - Turnaround should continue with positive results.
Valuetronics - Both CE and ICE segments will continue their growth momentum.
Best World - China story is in tact and should continue to power its growth.
SingTel - Launch of Netlink IPO should have a positive impact.
Micromechanics - Continue to benefit from its strategic decision to focus on semiconductor.
ISEC? Improvement in results, partly contributed by the acquisition of JLM clinics in 2016?
2018
Food Empire - Growth rate should be lower as compared to 2017. Expect growth from other markets, especially from the ingredient segment.
Valuetronics - At least for first half of the year with their automotive segment continues to gain traction.
Best World - This year should see more conversion of China export model to direct sales. Margin should improve.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust - DPU boosted by Northpoint AEI in 2017.
Starhill Global REIT - DPU boosted by completion of Plaza Arcade redevelopment by 20181Q.
Straco? Will it increase its dividend?
Kingsmen Creatives? Will this be the turnaround year?
Raffles Medical Group? Unlikely, but will the new extension start to make a difference?
Duty Free International? Expansion or increase dividend from their cash hoard?
2019
Straco - Either acquisition or increase dividend if it did not do so in 2018.
Capital Mall Trust - DPU boosted from re-opening of Funan in 2018.
Raffles Medical Group? Contribution from Extension and Raffles Chongqing but may face start-up cost pressure from Raffles Shanghai.
Best World? Will it continue to grow?
Frasers Centrepoint Trust? Acquisition of Waterway Point? or in 2020 or 2021?
Starhill Global REIT? Orchard office turnaround?
Kingsmen Creatives? Continue its turnaround?
Frasers Logistic and Industries Trust? More acquisition?
2020/2021
Raffles Medical Group - Reaping the fruit of its expansion.
Straco - Further increase in dividend.
2017 1H Performance
Half a year has passed and it's time to report on portfolio performance again. Happy to report a good half yearly performance with a good second quarter riding on an exceptional first quarter.
Performance
NAV of portfolio grew from $3.78 (30 Dec 2016) to $5.17 (30 Jun 2017), providing a return of 36.6% for 6 months. This is above my stretched target of 12% and also beats my benchmark STI ETF which returned 14.6% inclusive of dividend over the same period. The charts below show the past 6 quarters and past 3 half-yearly performances. The drop in prices of a few counters in the past few weeks have weakened Q2 results but nonetheless a 9.0% return is a good one which I will take for any other year. The exception Q1 performance has also led to the best half yearly performance.
The strong performance is attributed to a combination of positive sentiment in the local market and good results reported from my top ten counters over the past two quarters. A summary of my top ten counters' last quarter performance can be found here.
The top performers continues to be Best World. After stock split and dividend, it has returned 127% this year. This is supported by core stock such as Valuetronics (47%), Food Empire (35%), Micro-Mechanics (32%), Straco (19%), Parkway Life Reit (15%), and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (14%).
ISEC which is not in the top ten also did well with an increase of 10%.
Allocation
While there were some changes in the counter, portfolio allocation has more or less stayed similar to what was planned. Current dividend yield of portfolio based on cost is about 4.7%.
Planned
|
Actual
| |
Dividend
|
~ 60%
|
58.0%
|
REIT/ Business Trust
|
<= 30%
|
25.8%
|
Growth
|
~ 40%
|
40.1%
|
Punt
|
<=10%
|
9.4%
|
Cash
|
0%
|
1.9%
|
Earlier in the month, I have also wrote about asset allocation in which I have written that I am going for 30% cash and 70% stock allocation. A check on my spreadsheet shows that it is at this allocation. So no action will be taken to put in or take out cash from the portfolio.
Action
For the month of June,
I have divested
- A-REIT at $2.65 for a gain of 19%. Bought last December for a tantalising 7% yield for industry leader. With the recent gain, I have received more that 2 years of distribution and yield has dropped below 6%.
- Techwah at $0.515 for a gain of 10%. Reason for sale is to raise cash for other counters.
- more Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust at $1.03 after news of its latest acquisition. I take this as sign of how things will be like in the years to come.
- Japan Food at $0.46 for its consistent dividend. If it can maintain its dividend, it will give me a return of 4.3%. Not fantastic, so hope it will be higher in future.
- Duty Free International at $0.35 for its increase cash hoard and possible expansion in the next few years.
- Valuetronics at $0.77 to round up my holdings. Also, I am satisfied with the 4.7% dividend yield it is giving me.
Core holdings
Based on initial cost, the top 10 holdings take up 74.9% of the portfolio. With the purchase of Food Empire and Valuetronics, they have moved up in positions. The rest has remains pretty stable.
- Food Empire (9.7%) @ $0.43
- Raffles Medical (9.5%) @ $1.48
- Parkwaylife REIT (8.9%) @ $2.32
- Valuetronics (8.6%) @ $0.54
- Straco (8.1%) @ $0.84
- Best World (7.7%) @ $0.30
- Fraser Centrepoint Trust (6.4%) @ $2.01
- SingTel (6.1%) @ $3.82
- Micro-Mechanics (5.8%) @ $0.91
- Starhill Global (4.3%) @ $0.67
Looking Ahead
It has been a wonderful ride so far this year. Not sure how long the good time is going to last but enjoying it while it lasts. Looking forward to the release of next round of quarterly results from my holdings and am confident of good results from most of my holdings.Similar to first half, I do not think there will be much action on my core holdings. However, I might tingle a bit more with my none-core.
Up next, I will post on a short visibility report of my various holdings for the next few years.
Saturday, 20 May 2017
Buy and Sell actions in May
My actions for the month of May.
1. Added more Food Empire @ 0.535. Felt gutted that it dropped to 0.535 not long after my last purchase at 0.58. Decided to take the opportunity for me to accumulate further.
2. Sold Isoteam @ 0.37. Decided to let it go after its lacklustre 1Q performance and my indifference towards learning more about its business. Made a small gain of 4.9%.
3. Bought Jumbo @ 0.655. Was quite surprised for its more than 10% NPM. Decided to take a small position to punt on its success in its overseas expansion.
4. Bought Kingsmen Creatives @ 0.61. Have been waiting to re-invest in this familiar counter. Bought it rather impulsively after reading various discussion on it. Think that this could be the turnaround year and am satisfied with current dividend yield of 4%.
1. Added more Food Empire @ 0.535. Felt gutted that it dropped to 0.535 not long after my last purchase at 0.58. Decided to take the opportunity for me to accumulate further.
2. Sold Isoteam @ 0.37. Decided to let it go after its lacklustre 1Q performance and my indifference towards learning more about its business. Made a small gain of 4.9%.
3. Bought Jumbo @ 0.655. Was quite surprised for its more than 10% NPM. Decided to take a small position to punt on its success in its overseas expansion.
4. Bought Kingsmen Creatives @ 0.61. Have been waiting to re-invest in this familiar counter. Bought it rather impulsively after reading various discussion on it. Think that this could be the turnaround year and am satisfied with current dividend yield of 4%.
Wednesday, 23 September 2015
Kingsmen Creatives
Kingsmen caught my attention 9 years ago. My first purchase was in December 2006 and I accumulated more. over the next few years. However, I sold out (emotion at play) in December 2012 as share price tumbled due to fraud. I can't quite remember the details but reading through valuebuddies forum, the amount involved was small compared to the business and these were isolated cases.
I re-established a position in the company in mid-2013 and purchased more during the recent selldown. Here is my take of the company.
Business
Kingsmen provides clients with integrated solutions in Exhibitions & Museums, Retail & Office Interiors, Research & Design and Integrated Marketing Communications in the Asia Pacific region. Retail clientele include Christian Dior, Fendi, H&M, Shilla, Tiffany & Co., Uniqlo and others. Having seen their work in the shopping centres, I am impressed by their work. Some of the events that the company are involved in are F1 Sg, Singapore Sports Hub, Singapore Airshow and BNP WTA Finals.
As seen from the above, Kingsmen has established an impressive list of International clientele base that allows the company to generate recurring revenue and expand together with them.
Crunching the Numbers
The image below shows the key financial figures of the company over the past 10 years. 2015 figure might not be accurate as it is based on the half-yearly results.
As seen from the data, revenue has tripled over the decade but the growth has slowed over the past 5 years. Net profit growth is more lumpy and again for the last 5 years, the numbers do not look as rosy. The low net profit margin of about 5% to 6% shows that the company does not have much pricing power and is probably in a competitive industry.
Return of Equity has been around 20 plus percentage but has dropped along the years. The company does not have much capital expenditure except on years when they are purchasing land and/or building new factory. This has resulted in a pretty healthy free cash flow over the past 5 years. The company has also been paying out about 40% to 50% of its income for dividend. For the latest half-year report, the company has cut its interim dividend from 1.5 cents to 1.0 cent.
Management
The two founders of the group Benedict Soh and Simon Ong still hold about 50% of the shares. The public face is Benedict who is the executive chairman and has featured in various interviews by the media over the year. While I have not attended any of the AGM or met any of them before, I am pretty confident of the team based on how the company has reported their results.
My Take
The company has enjoyed a period of good growth from 2006 to 2011 but over the last few years, it seems to struggle to maintain the momentum. I perceive the company is going through a period where it is preparing for the next phase of growth. The Executive Chairman's statement in last year annual report provides a glimpse of their current situation.
2014 was a fruitful year as we made strides in ramping up our production and human resource capabilities in anticipation of increasing demand for our products and services around the world. The acquisition of the Johor property was a strategic step towards establishing a permanent manufacturing base. We continued to upgrade and align the skills and knowledge of our people through the Kingsmen Academy, with training courses tailored to develop well-rounded individuals attuned to our business needs. We also sought to extend our expertise in the design and production of shop fixtures and decorations to the United States with the incorporation of our subsidiary, Kingsmen Projects US, in California in 2014. This is in line with our long-term view of the growth prospects for our business, as we continue to build and invest in facilities, processes and manpower.
- Benedict Soh, 2014 AR
Will they succeed? I definitely hope so since I have a stake in them.
My Action
I am holding on to my current holding and will continue to monitor the progress of the company through its quarterly report. I will not be adding more shares as it is already taking up near to 16% of my portfolio and there is no impetus for a higher stake. In fact, I might be reducing my holding if there is a need to raise cash to invest in another company that has a better story.
Wednesday, 16 September 2015
Portfolio September 2015
In August, I sold out on King Wan, Pan United and Soilbuild. Since then I have added increase my stakes in Kingsmen Creatives and Hour Glass. I have also added Capital Retail China Trust, ST Engineering and Parkway Life REIT. The following is my current holding:
For Income (52%)
REIT (31%)
Starhill Global REIT
Croesus Retail Trust
Capital Retail China Trust
Parkway Life REIT
Parkway Life REIT
Dividend Stocks (21%)
M1
ST Engineering
Design Studio
For Growth and Punting (36%)
Growth Stocks (29%)
Kingsmen Creatives
The Hour Glass
Punt (7%)
CDW
Food Empire
Saturday, 9 May 2009
9th May 2009 Update II Company Review (Cash portfolio)
As mentioned in the earlier post, YTD my cash portfolio is 9.4% up. Currently, holding on to five counters Celestial Nutrifood, Kingsmen Creative, Pan United Corporation, Fibrechem and Thomson Medical. The following is a review of their 2008 Performance and development this year.
(a) Kingsmen Creative (Initial Purchase Dec 2006)
Kingsmen posted an increase of revenue and net profit by 30.4% and 51.0% respectively. This is a very good set of results in a year of turmoil. The group net profit margin has increased from 2.5% in 2005 to a credible 7.4% in the current year with ROE hitting 31.1%. I must say that I am impressed by this MICE Company with a market cap of only 66 millions. The management has guided that 2009 will be another strong year with contributions from Universal Studios and F1 Singapore in the pipeline. What is exciting is its presence in both Greater China and Middle East. If the expansion plans go well, the group will continue to grow in the coming years.
With a dividend of 3 cents per share declared this year, my dividend yield stands at 10.5%. I am looking into increasing my stake in this group soon.
(b) Celestial Nutrifood (Initial Purchase May 2007)
Despite the challenging condition in 2008, the group has managed to grow its revenue and net profit by 27.9% and 19.1% respectively. This was achieved through the increase of its selling price of products which did not affect the sales volume in the industry. This is indeed good news as it shows that the industry is in favor of the group’s product. The group decides to continue to commence on the production of two new health food and beverage products in 1H2009 – high protein nutrient beverages and high protein nutrient powder.
A concern of the group is the potential redemption of RMB 1226 mil bonds on 12 June 2009. The group has only RMB 812 mil in cash. If we account for all current assets and liabilities, the group has net current liabilities of RMB 63.5 mil. The management has shared that they are on the active look out for the re-financing of this potential redemption of the bonds but has yet to finalize any deal. With only about a month to go, this is a growing concern. Hopefully when the group announces its 20091Q results, this issue can be resolved.
(c) Pan United Corporation (Initial Purchase May 2008)
Revenue and net profit increased by 26.6% and 50.5% respectively. The group’s Basic Building and Materials (BBM) and Shipping divisions have delivered growth; while the Port and Logistics division shows stable contribution. Looking ahead, with Singapore’s strong pipeline of infrastructure, industrial and public residential projects; the group BBM division will continue to do well. The shipping division is getting 7 new vessels in mid 2009 which should be well deployed for the year. Port and Logistic division should continue be stable with the hope that China stimulus package will negate the slowdown in demand.
A total of 3.8 cents per share was declared for dividend this year, my dividend yield stands at 7.6%. I will continue to hold on to my 25 lots as the current price does not entice on further purchase or selling.
(d) FibreChem Technologies Limited (Initial Purchase October 2008)
After reading an article in Pulses on the fabric industry in China, decided to take a stake in FibreChem and Li Heng. Both reported respectable results for their 9 months in 2008. But the bombshell came in Feb 2009 just before FB announce their 2008 results, that the counter will be suspended as the auditor has difficulties in finalizing its trade receivable and cash balances. The CEO has since resigned and independent investigator and financial advisor has been appointed. The group was also granted an extension to the date it will announce its 2008 results to 31 May.
As for Li Heng, it has announced a good set of results for year 2008 and declared a total dividend of 2.5 cents per share. However, as guided by management 20084Q result is dismal and so will the coming 20091Q results. As mentioned in the earlier post, I have since taken profit on this counter but will keep it in my radar.
(e) Thomson Medical Center (Initial Purchase December 2008)Thomson Medical has been on my radar for quite some time. However, its valuation wasn’t quite attractive enough until this financial turmoil. At my purchase price of $0.47, its PE based on its 2008 results is 12.3x. Still no way near the single digit PE by other groups but for a health care group, this is acceptable to me. I was choosing between TMC and Raffles Medical to invest in then and went with my gut feeling on TMC. Raffles Medical has since increased by 50% since 2008 while TMC only increased by 7%. Wrong decision? Maybe, but I like both of them as healthcare is here to stay and will be at least provide a stable return in Singapore.
For its 20091H results announced on 7th April, TMC posted a 8.3% and 5.3% increase in revenue and net profit respectively. The group has completed renovation of first phase of Level 5 inpatient ward in 2009Q2 and secondary phase is expected to complete in April 2009. This is expected to improve margin of TMC as it charges a higher rate with the renovated ward. The group has also entered a joint venture to commence operation on Thomson Women Cancer Centre which is line with group’s objective to grow organically in the management of women’s health. The group consultancy project in Vietnam is also progressing as planned with its target completion in third quarter 2009. The hospital management services contract will take effect when it commences operation in Q1 2010. With all this expansion progressing well, I am confident of the hospital growth in the coming years.
(a) Kingsmen Creative (Initial Purchase Dec 2006)
Kingsmen posted an increase of revenue and net profit by 30.4% and 51.0% respectively. This is a very good set of results in a year of turmoil. The group net profit margin has increased from 2.5% in 2005 to a credible 7.4% in the current year with ROE hitting 31.1%. I must say that I am impressed by this MICE Company with a market cap of only 66 millions. The management has guided that 2009 will be another strong year with contributions from Universal Studios and F1 Singapore in the pipeline. What is exciting is its presence in both Greater China and Middle East. If the expansion plans go well, the group will continue to grow in the coming years.
With a dividend of 3 cents per share declared this year, my dividend yield stands at 10.5%. I am looking into increasing my stake in this group soon.
(b) Celestial Nutrifood (Initial Purchase May 2007)
Despite the challenging condition in 2008, the group has managed to grow its revenue and net profit by 27.9% and 19.1% respectively. This was achieved through the increase of its selling price of products which did not affect the sales volume in the industry. This is indeed good news as it shows that the industry is in favor of the group’s product. The group decides to continue to commence on the production of two new health food and beverage products in 1H2009 – high protein nutrient beverages and high protein nutrient powder.
A concern of the group is the potential redemption of RMB 1226 mil bonds on 12 June 2009. The group has only RMB 812 mil in cash. If we account for all current assets and liabilities, the group has net current liabilities of RMB 63.5 mil. The management has shared that they are on the active look out for the re-financing of this potential redemption of the bonds but has yet to finalize any deal. With only about a month to go, this is a growing concern. Hopefully when the group announces its 20091Q results, this issue can be resolved.
(c) Pan United Corporation (Initial Purchase May 2008)
Revenue and net profit increased by 26.6% and 50.5% respectively. The group’s Basic Building and Materials (BBM) and Shipping divisions have delivered growth; while the Port and Logistics division shows stable contribution. Looking ahead, with Singapore’s strong pipeline of infrastructure, industrial and public residential projects; the group BBM division will continue to do well. The shipping division is getting 7 new vessels in mid 2009 which should be well deployed for the year. Port and Logistic division should continue be stable with the hope that China stimulus package will negate the slowdown in demand.
A total of 3.8 cents per share was declared for dividend this year, my dividend yield stands at 7.6%. I will continue to hold on to my 25 lots as the current price does not entice on further purchase or selling.
(d) FibreChem Technologies Limited (Initial Purchase October 2008)
After reading an article in Pulses on the fabric industry in China, decided to take a stake in FibreChem and Li Heng. Both reported respectable results for their 9 months in 2008. But the bombshell came in Feb 2009 just before FB announce their 2008 results, that the counter will be suspended as the auditor has difficulties in finalizing its trade receivable and cash balances. The CEO has since resigned and independent investigator and financial advisor has been appointed. The group was also granted an extension to the date it will announce its 2008 results to 31 May.
As for Li Heng, it has announced a good set of results for year 2008 and declared a total dividend of 2.5 cents per share. However, as guided by management 20084Q result is dismal and so will the coming 20091Q results. As mentioned in the earlier post, I have since taken profit on this counter but will keep it in my radar.
(e) Thomson Medical Center (Initial Purchase December 2008)Thomson Medical has been on my radar for quite some time. However, its valuation wasn’t quite attractive enough until this financial turmoil. At my purchase price of $0.47, its PE based on its 2008 results is 12.3x. Still no way near the single digit PE by other groups but for a health care group, this is acceptable to me. I was choosing between TMC and Raffles Medical to invest in then and went with my gut feeling on TMC. Raffles Medical has since increased by 50% since 2008 while TMC only increased by 7%. Wrong decision? Maybe, but I like both of them as healthcare is here to stay and will be at least provide a stable return in Singapore.
For its 20091H results announced on 7th April, TMC posted a 8.3% and 5.3% increase in revenue and net profit respectively. The group has completed renovation of first phase of Level 5 inpatient ward in 2009Q2 and secondary phase is expected to complete in April 2009. This is expected to improve margin of TMC as it charges a higher rate with the renovated ward. The group has also entered a joint venture to commence operation on Thomson Women Cancer Centre which is line with group’s objective to grow organically in the management of women’s health. The group consultancy project in Vietnam is also progressing as planned with its target completion in third quarter 2009. The hospital management services contract will take effect when it commences operation in Q1 2010. With all this expansion progressing well, I am confident of the hospital growth in the coming years.
Friday, 8 May 2009
8th May 2009 Update I My portfolio performance
More than half a year has passed since my last update.
Someone commented in the Wallstraits forum early this year that the forum is getting dead with little new postings and discussions. Is there a correlation between number of posts and how the market is doing? Apparently, it seems that I am suffering from the same psychological effect, with a drop in interest in updating during the past half a year when my portfolio paints a bloody picture. Yes, there were occasions where I wanted to update but did not get down to it eventually. Here I am finally but is it coincidental that this timing matches the rally on STI over the past 2 weeks or with the blood coming off my portfolio, I feel better to write about it. In any case, it’s necessary for me to constantly reviewing my position since I wanted this to my alternative source of income which will help me to achieve financial independency. So here I go.
As mentioned in October 2008, 2008 was a tough year and both my cash and CPF portfolio slid further to end up 38.8% and 48.4% lower than 2007. Things did not look better early this year especially my cash portfolio which continued to drop by another 30% by February and NAV was lower than $1 (initial position in 2002) before it showed a better performance in March and April. The last two weeks’ rally has really been amazing, resulting in a YTD 9.4% and 30.8% gain for my cash and CPF portfolio respectively. Again, this show how hard it is to predict the market and how one can just miss the boat if he wants to catch the bottom.
Action from Oct 2008 to today
With limited cash, I did not do much trading. I added Thomson Medical Centre (10 lots at $0.473) to my portfolio in December 2008 as I like their story especially when quite a number of my friends giving birth there. With its expansion in Vietnam, it seems that the company is on track for further years of growth.
I also increased my stake in Celestial (average down to $0.326 with 50 lots at $0.11) in March 2009. This was an exception and risky purchase as it would make Celestial occupying near to 40% of my portfolio. With the news that its outstanding bonds might be redeemed by June this year and the company has yet to confirm the re-financing plan, it could mean that my stake could be wiped out. I decided to take the risk since the offer was just too good to resist. I offloaded 50 lots at $0.21 yesterday realizing a loss of $5833 for this counter. While I am still confident of the company in next few years, the fact that re-financing is still unconfirmed with only 1 ½ months to go is not re-assuring. I will decide when the company announces its 20091Q results whether to hold on to the other 50 lots or to cut loss.
I also increased my stakes of Kingsmen Creative (10 lots at $0.335) and Pan United Corporation (10 lots at $0.35) in March 09 and December 09 respectively. Both companies did well last year and visibility is clear in the near future with attractive dividend yield of 10% and 7.5% respectively.
I bought Li Heng in October 08, increased my stakes in March 09 and sold all yesterday with a profit of $1609. While I like its story, it is expected that 091Q results will be bad as indicated by management, so with little visibility, I decided to take profit. The company will remain in my radar.
Sold Lantrovision today to realize a loss of $836. The counter was brought for punting but decided to cash out so as to use the cash for investment in better companies.
The biggest story in my cash portfolio must be FibreChem which was suspended in March as the audit was unable to account for its cash balance. CEO has resigned and pledged to assist in the investigation and extension of releasing of 2008 report was granted till June 09. Worse case scenario will be $10 k wipe out. This shows the importance of diversification as one will never know what will happen even if past records of company were good.
My CPF portfolio has remained stable with no purchase or selling of any of my stocks and unit trusts.
Someone commented in the Wallstraits forum early this year that the forum is getting dead with little new postings and discussions. Is there a correlation between number of posts and how the market is doing? Apparently, it seems that I am suffering from the same psychological effect, with a drop in interest in updating during the past half a year when my portfolio paints a bloody picture. Yes, there were occasions where I wanted to update but did not get down to it eventually. Here I am finally but is it coincidental that this timing matches the rally on STI over the past 2 weeks or with the blood coming off my portfolio, I feel better to write about it. In any case, it’s necessary for me to constantly reviewing my position since I wanted this to my alternative source of income which will help me to achieve financial independency. So here I go.
As mentioned in October 2008, 2008 was a tough year and both my cash and CPF portfolio slid further to end up 38.8% and 48.4% lower than 2007. Things did not look better early this year especially my cash portfolio which continued to drop by another 30% by February and NAV was lower than $1 (initial position in 2002) before it showed a better performance in March and April. The last two weeks’ rally has really been amazing, resulting in a YTD 9.4% and 30.8% gain for my cash and CPF portfolio respectively. Again, this show how hard it is to predict the market and how one can just miss the boat if he wants to catch the bottom.
Action from Oct 2008 to today
With limited cash, I did not do much trading. I added Thomson Medical Centre (10 lots at $0.473) to my portfolio in December 2008 as I like their story especially when quite a number of my friends giving birth there. With its expansion in Vietnam, it seems that the company is on track for further years of growth.
I also increased my stake in Celestial (average down to $0.326 with 50 lots at $0.11) in March 2009. This was an exception and risky purchase as it would make Celestial occupying near to 40% of my portfolio. With the news that its outstanding bonds might be redeemed by June this year and the company has yet to confirm the re-financing plan, it could mean that my stake could be wiped out. I decided to take the risk since the offer was just too good to resist. I offloaded 50 lots at $0.21 yesterday realizing a loss of $5833 for this counter. While I am still confident of the company in next few years, the fact that re-financing is still unconfirmed with only 1 ½ months to go is not re-assuring. I will decide when the company announces its 20091Q results whether to hold on to the other 50 lots or to cut loss.
I also increased my stakes of Kingsmen Creative (10 lots at $0.335) and Pan United Corporation (10 lots at $0.35) in March 09 and December 09 respectively. Both companies did well last year and visibility is clear in the near future with attractive dividend yield of 10% and 7.5% respectively.
I bought Li Heng in October 08, increased my stakes in March 09 and sold all yesterday with a profit of $1609. While I like its story, it is expected that 091Q results will be bad as indicated by management, so with little visibility, I decided to take profit. The company will remain in my radar.
Sold Lantrovision today to realize a loss of $836. The counter was brought for punting but decided to cash out so as to use the cash for investment in better companies.
The biggest story in my cash portfolio must be FibreChem which was suspended in March as the audit was unable to account for its cash balance. CEO has resigned and pledged to assist in the investigation and extension of releasing of 2008 report was granted till June 09. Worse case scenario will be $10 k wipe out. This shows the importance of diversification as one will never know what will happen even if past records of company were good.
My CPF portfolio has remained stable with no purchase or selling of any of my stocks and unit trusts.
Thursday, 26 June 2008
24thJune Mid Year Review II
(e) Kingsmen Creative
Kingsmen posted an increase of revenue and net profit by 34.1% and 89.7% respectively. Prior to its 2-to-3 splits, I bought another 5 lots and after the split, the average purchase price of my 30 lots is $0.222. The company has declared a dividend of $0.015 per share which gives me a yield of 6.76%. I will continue to hold on to this counter as I expect the company to turn in good numbers over the next few years.
Since decreasing my stack in this counter to 5 lots in Oct 2007, the price of the counter has dropped by more than 50%. Its 20083Q result is disappointing and the company is definitely affected by the sub-prime as it reported one $2 mil order is delayed. It is expected that the next few quarters the company’s earning will be lumpy and it will probably take the next one or two years for it to get back to its growth path. Fundamental has changed but not the management which still impressed me with its forthcoming report. I purchased 5 lots this month to average down my purchase price to $0.553. I do not expect the counter to touch this price this year, might not even reach this next year. However, I believe that in long term, it has a potential to be a multi-bagger. In the latest Edge issue, the company reported that it is looking into China
Pokka reported an increase of 15.4% and 629.8% in revenue and net profit for FY2008. Net profit margin is still at a low of 4.2% with ROE jumping to 18%. A general offer to take the counter private was made last week at a price of $0.66. This translates to a gain of about 39% for me. The offer seems to be at the low side especially with the company doing so well over the last year. Fellow forummers share similar views and at the moment I am not inclined to take up the offer. Of course, if Pokka is able to round up 90% of the total shares, the offer will be irrevocable. If that’s the case, I will enjoy the 39% gain.
(h) Inter Roller
My thinking that the big drop in profit in 20071H is a one-off event does not seem to stand. For the year 2007, the company reports a decrease of revenue and net profit by 13.7% and 32.5% respectively. Visibility for the year 2008 is low with a poor 20081Q results. However, I still believe that this is a well-run company and in medium term, it will get back to its growth path. The price has dropped by near to 50% since I took up a small stake in Oct 2007. I am still weighing the choice of averaging down since I am already 93% invested at this point.
(h) Lantrovision
A punt I made in last November which is suffering from a 50% drop. As this only takes up only 4% of my portfolio, I have no intention to sell (as I believe it will do pretty well this year) or buy (visibility not that clear) at the moment.
(j) SIA Engineering
I purchased 2 lots of SIA Engineering to add stability to my cash portfolio. Short term, there isn’t much surprise but I am positive of the company’s prospect in the next 2 to 3 years with the increase earning from JV and also a new income source from A380. At my purchase price of $3.84, the dividend yield stands at 5.2% which I will enjoy collecting yearly.
(k) Pan United Corporation
Another counter which I have bought and sold in the past. At my purchase price of $0.66, this small to mid cap company is trading at a PE of 7.7x. An attractive entry point for me since the visibility of its profit for the next few years is high. Based on 2007 dividend, I stand to get a dividend yield of 6.8%.
CPF Portfolio
To date, my CPF portfolio has dropped 14.6%. If this continued, this will be the first time since I started using CPF to invest in stock which I will post a negative return. Subsequently, this brings my CAGR down to 12.9% as compared to an average of 20% over the past few years. Is there any different this year? Any major mistake? Taking a look at last year buy-sell decisions that I made, I will attribute to this performance to two factors. The key factor again the sub-prime factor which has caused most stocks to drop in values and hence the low price is the few counters I am holding now even though I am confident of their long term prospect. Another mistake is the purchase of Food Junction for its historical dividend yield, which did not keep up this year. I have since divested FJ at a loss of $1400 not just because its dividend has not kept up but I am not impressed by the new initiatives, concepts came up by the management. The final decision came when I had dinner at the newly renovated outlet at Bugis Junction. It is not that bad but it does not meet up with what the management has described in their report.
(a) Singapore Land
Cheap can get cheaper. I thought at $8.45 per share, it’s cheap but it became cheaper and dropped to $6 plus by May 2008. I purchased another lot at $6.31 as I still believe that mid-term prospect of Singapore Land
(b) Metro
Another property counter that is selling at a huge discount to its RNAV. I am confident of the group’s management of its China
(c) First Reit
Its price has been pretty stable and so far it has distribute out its dividend. Yield stands at 8.5%.
(d) ComfortDelgro
It faces pressure from the run-away oil price. Over the past four years, the counter only provides a compounded return of 3.3%. I am still positive of the group in posting a jump in results once the oil price stabilizes. Dividend yield stands at 5.85%.
Tuesday, 1 January 2008
2007 in Review
Cash Portfolio
2007 has been a good year for my cash portfolio. NAV of my cash portfolio has increased by 49.4% from $1.44 to $2.15. I have no confidence that I will repeat this performance in 2008 but I believe that in long term (10 to 15 years), getting a compounded return of 10% from stock can be quite easily done. With this record-breaking performance, my compounded return over the 8 years is 10.1%.
The mistake of the year must be the series of transaction near end July. Instead of holding on to the build up in cash position, I hurried to purchase a couple of counters which does not offer really good values and results in a loss of $2.2 k in a month.
Currently, I am still positive of long term prospect of Celestial, Pacific Andes despite sitting on paper loss. I am confident of performance of Hour Glass, Pokka, Kingsmen Creative and Inter Roller going into 2008. As for Mid-south, Lantrovision and Koda, I am neutral on them.
Companies that are within my radar are FSL (for its high dividend yield), Apex Pal (bold expansion plan), Pan United (benefiting from construction boom), Beauty China
CPF Portfolio
NAV increased by 10.3% from $2.19 to $2.41. This is the lowest YTY increase for the past 5 years but it is still much better than CPF return of 2.5%. Compounded return for the 5 years now stand at 19.3%.
The portfolio would have better showing if I had not sold off Sincere to raise cash for Jardine C&C and this mistake is compounded by the subsequent selling of Jardine in September. Again, I need to be discipline in holding to a winning counter instead of realizing the gain!
For the currentlportfolio, I am confident of a steady return in terms of dividend at an average yield of 6.22%. Any positive move in price will come from market revaluating the counters due to NAV (Metro, Singlan). Food Junction remains a wild card which I might dispose of if there are better buying opportunities.
Monday, 15 October 2007
Company Review: Kingsmen Creatives
As a one-stop design, production and logistics center, Kingsmen tops as a leading communications design and production entity in the Asia Pacific region. Providing clients with integrated solutions in Exhibitions & Museums, Retail & Office Interiors, Research & Design and Integrated Marketing Communications, Kingsmen is the epitome of a reliable global marketing communications firm.
Listed on SESDAQ in 2003, the company was affected by SARS in 2004. However, since then, the company has posted a CAGR of 30% in earning over the past 3 years. Net profit margin has improved from a low of 2% in 2004 to 5.9% in 20071H with its average ROE around 20%. The company has a net cash position and insiders hold about 25% of the total shares.
I was attracted to the company due to the big name clients that it served such as Adidas, Chanel, Hour Glass, Esprit, Nokia, DFS, DBS/POSB, FJ Benjamin and others. This is an impressive list of clients and having seen some of the interior designs, I am impressed by their works. One concern that I have is its low net profit margin, hopefully it can be better with new production facilities in Malaysia
I was lucky to come across this company in Dec. 2006 and purchased 15 lots at a price of $0.22 (at an amazing low historical PE of 4.5). The market has recognized the potential of this micro cap over the year and its price has more than double over the past 9 months. I will continue to hold on to my 15 lots as long as the company continues to perform well.
20071H Results
The company has posted a good first half results in August with its bottom line improves by 65%. It is expected that company to continue to do well in the second half of 2007 which traditionally contributes a higher percentage to company’s revenue and profit.
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