This month, I sold some counters to raise cash for more compelling ideas. Also, increase my stakes in a few of my US counters.
(figure in bracket represents the % the counter is occupying my portfolio based on cost)
Sold
1. Divested ISEC completely at $0.315 even though it has reported a good set of numbers in the latest quarter. Still find this an interesting outfit but decided to temporarily say goodbye to it as I wanted to buy other counters.
2. Sold Hock Lian Seng (2.0%) at $0.47 for a gain of 7.6%. This reduced my stake in the company and it now only occupies only 2% of my portfolio. Continue to believe in its ability to sustain its dividend based on the cash that it has and its strong order book. However, I relatively like my new positions.
Accumulate
1. Re-entered Capital Mall Trust (2.3%) at $2.02 after attending a sharing by Deputy CEO of Capital Mall Asia, Wilson Tan. Basically, he opined that retail mall is here to stay and Capital Mall will continue to be a powerhouse a decade later. With the purchase of CMT, I now own a slew of retail REITs but each for a different reason.
SG Reit - my longest holding for its focus on mall in prime area and its overseas exposure.
FCT - for its focus on sub-urban malls with most of them near MRT stations.
CMT - for not resting on its laurels and continues to take actions to be at the fore-front of retail mall.
2. Added more UMS (4.1%) at $1.05 after it announced a good set of Q3 results. Optimistic about its upcoming performance for the next few quarters and confident that it will at least maintain its dividend.
3. Added Intuitive Surgical (1.1%) @388.85 as I forgot to update my spreadsheet for its stock split! Luckily, bought only 4 shares to round up my total shares to 10. Let's hope it can continue with its splendid growth, then the mistake can become a blessing in disguise.
4. Added Vail Resorts (0.7%) @235.77 as it continues to report good growth from its acquisition. While management guided that 2018 growth might be slower due to the strong growth this year, long term prospect should remain good.
5. Re-entered Priceline (1.0%) @1655.75. I had sold earlier in September at 1840.6, making a loss of 5.1%. Since then the group announces a solid Q3 results which beats its own guidance. However, the market bashed it down due to another muted Q4 guidance. Seeing that Priceline always beats its own estimate, I decided to re-enter Priceline at a better price.
Showing posts with label fct. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fct. Show all posts
Tuesday, 28 November 2017
Thursday, 9 November 2017
Core holdings quarterly reporting (October to December) Part 1 - Reit
Decide to break up my core holdings quarterly reporting to two parts as my 3 REITS have completed reporting and the rest of my holdings are still reporting their results until the end of the month.
Again, my definition of core holdings are counters which I am more familiar with. These are counters which I am more confident of and have a more substantial holding (about 5% of portfolio); hence I am more likely to hold them for a longer period of time.
The tables below summarizes the 3 REITs performances for the latest quarter.
A+
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
As seen from the above table, FCT reported a strong quarter with increase in revenue, net property income, DPU and NAV. This despite the fact that Northpoint City is still about 18% vacant due to AEI. The strong showing comes from increase in occupancy in Changi City Point and Bedok Point, and 8.3% rental reversion for the past quarter.
I expect even better performance for the next two quarters with completion of Northpoint City. Also, with the opening of Downtown line, that will boost the traffic to Changi City Point.
The DPU might not jump in quantum as I think the proportion of management fees to be paid in Units will reduce from the current quarter of 70%. However, I believe that the management will want to continue to increase its DPU for the 12th straight year. Hence, I expect its DPU for next year will grow between 3% to 6%.
Also, with a low gearing of only 29%, acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point within the next few years is definitely a possibility.
The price of the counter has gone up quite a bit before the results is announced. It dipped to $2.17 recently which is not cheap with respect to its NAV of $2.02. However, with its proven track record and my thinking of its next year's DPU, I increased my stake by another 25%. With this increase, my average price is $2.06.
A
ParkwayLife REIT
Parkwaylife continues its stable and strong performance. Even excluding the divestment gain, its DPU has gone up by 2.9% compared to 2016Q3. For this financial year, its DPU has slowly increase too (Q1 3.06, Q2 3.10, Q3 3.15). No complain about it except that its price has really run up too much for me to accumulate further at this point. Might start considering again if yield increases to at least 4.8%.
C
Starhill Global REIT
All metric continues to drop as compared to a year ago but it seems to have stablized over the previous quarters. The key concern still lies with its office occupancy but the bright spot is management has shared that they are finalising the deal for 1/3 of its vacant space.
Going forward, things should look slightly brighter with the above, completion of Australia AEI and stable income from China properties. The price seems to have factored in the outlook as it hardly move after the announcement of the weaker results. I am going to continue to hold on to my current stake (average price of $0.70) which occupies 4.8% of portfolio.
Again, my definition of core holdings are counters which I am more familiar with. These are counters which I am more confident of and have a more substantial holding (about 5% of portfolio); hence I am more likely to hold them for a longer period of time.
The tables below summarizes the 3 REITs performances for the latest quarter.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
As seen from the above table, FCT reported a strong quarter with increase in revenue, net property income, DPU and NAV. This despite the fact that Northpoint City is still about 18% vacant due to AEI. The strong showing comes from increase in occupancy in Changi City Point and Bedok Point, and 8.3% rental reversion for the past quarter.
I expect even better performance for the next two quarters with completion of Northpoint City. Also, with the opening of Downtown line, that will boost the traffic to Changi City Point.
The DPU might not jump in quantum as I think the proportion of management fees to be paid in Units will reduce from the current quarter of 70%. However, I believe that the management will want to continue to increase its DPU for the 12th straight year. Hence, I expect its DPU for next year will grow between 3% to 6%.
Also, with a low gearing of only 29%, acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point within the next few years is definitely a possibility.
The price of the counter has gone up quite a bit before the results is announced. It dipped to $2.17 recently which is not cheap with respect to its NAV of $2.02. However, with its proven track record and my thinking of its next year's DPU, I increased my stake by another 25%. With this increase, my average price is $2.06.
A
ParkwayLife REIT
Parkwaylife continues its stable and strong performance. Even excluding the divestment gain, its DPU has gone up by 2.9% compared to 2016Q3. For this financial year, its DPU has slowly increase too (Q1 3.06, Q2 3.10, Q3 3.15). No complain about it except that its price has really run up too much for me to accumulate further at this point. Might start considering again if yield increases to at least 4.8%.
C
Starhill Global REIT
All metric continues to drop as compared to a year ago but it seems to have stablized over the previous quarters. The key concern still lies with its office occupancy but the bright spot is management has shared that they are finalising the deal for 1/3 of its vacant space.
Going forward, things should look slightly brighter with the above, completion of Australia AEI and stable income from China properties. The price seems to have factored in the outlook as it hardly move after the announcement of the weaker results. I am going to continue to hold on to my current stake (average price of $0.70) which occupies 4.8% of portfolio.
Wednesday, 25 October 2017
Buy and sell actions in October
Unlike the past 3 months, I have taken relatively less actions in October.
1. Added more iFAST as I felt excited and confident of its future growth after reading through the past annual reports. See previous post on my thoughts about the company. It now occupies 5.4% of my portfolio with my average price at $0.935.
2. Added more Hock Lian Seng after learning more about the company through the past annual reports. With a strong order book and balance sheet, feel confident that it can maintain its 2.5 cents of dividend. That gives me a yield of 5.5% with my average price of $0.454.
3. Added more Frasers Centrepoint Trust after its stellar Q4 performance and price dipped to $2.17 from the recent high of $2.2+. Expect DPU and NAV to continue to grow next year now that AEI of Northpoint is almost completed. Assuming that DPU comes in at 12.2 c, it will provide a yield of 5.6% at $2.17. My average price is now $2.06 which is only slightly above its current NAV of $2.02.
4. Bought ULTA Beauty at USD196.85. Felt that it was way oversold from its recent high of USD300 in June, especially when it is growing at 20% to 25% for this financial year. Its current PE of 25-27 is much lower than its past 5 years average of 38.
5. Bought 800 Super at $1.21. After a closer look at its business, decided that there is still room for growth in the next few years especially with the Waste-to-Energy (WTE) coming into operation at the end of this year.
6. Sold CDLHT at $1.63, making a small gain of 2.7%. DPU after rights is lower and the outlook of the hospitality sector probably need another year or two for greater clarity. So decided to sell and use the proceed for other counters.
7. Sold OUEHT at $0.805, making a gain of 5.8%. Similar reason on hospitality sector. Decided not to wait for quarterly results in the coming week as I have made a small gain and am unsure how the DPU will be affected as there will be no more income support.
1. Added more iFAST as I felt excited and confident of its future growth after reading through the past annual reports. See previous post on my thoughts about the company. It now occupies 5.4% of my portfolio with my average price at $0.935.
2. Added more Hock Lian Seng after learning more about the company through the past annual reports. With a strong order book and balance sheet, feel confident that it can maintain its 2.5 cents of dividend. That gives me a yield of 5.5% with my average price of $0.454.
3. Added more Frasers Centrepoint Trust after its stellar Q4 performance and price dipped to $2.17 from the recent high of $2.2+. Expect DPU and NAV to continue to grow next year now that AEI of Northpoint is almost completed. Assuming that DPU comes in at 12.2 c, it will provide a yield of 5.6% at $2.17. My average price is now $2.06 which is only slightly above its current NAV of $2.02.
4. Bought ULTA Beauty at USD196.85. Felt that it was way oversold from its recent high of USD300 in June, especially when it is growing at 20% to 25% for this financial year. Its current PE of 25-27 is much lower than its past 5 years average of 38.
5. Bought 800 Super at $1.21. After a closer look at its business, decided that there is still room for growth in the next few years especially with the Waste-to-Energy (WTE) coming into operation at the end of this year.
6. Sold CDLHT at $1.63, making a small gain of 2.7%. DPU after rights is lower and the outlook of the hospitality sector probably need another year or two for greater clarity. So decided to sell and use the proceed for other counters.
7. Sold OUEHT at $0.805, making a gain of 5.8%. Similar reason on hospitality sector. Decided not to wait for quarterly results in the coming week as I have made a small gain and am unsure how the DPU will be affected as there will be no more income support.
Friday, 29 September 2017
2017 9M performance
Performance
Another quarter has passed and it's time to take stock of portfolio's performance.
Another quarter has passed and it's time to take stock of portfolio's performance.
It is a muted performance for the quarter, resulting in a slight increase in NAV compared to 20171H performance. In fact, if not for the strong performance of Valuetronics and UMS over the past few days, this quarter will post a return lower than 20171H.
NAV of portfolio grew from $3.78 (30 Dec 2016) to $5.22 (30 Sep 2017), providing a return of 37.8% for 9 months. Definitely happy as this is well above my stretched target of 12% and also beats benchmark STI ETF which returned about 14% (inclusive of dividend) over the same period.
The chart below shows the performance of past 7 quarters.
The muted quarter's performance can be attributed to the following:
- weaker market sentiment for the past quarter,
- continued sell-down of Raffles Medical Group,
- correction of Food Empire,
- divestment of Micro-Mechanics which shot up 20% after I sold, *ouch*
- increase in trading activities as I look for new ideas for the next few years.
Gainers and losers
The following tables show the top gainers and losers for this year thus far. The list should remain pretty much the same by end of the year.
I am glad that 7 out of my 10 core holdings have returned more than 10% thus far this year. Even with the divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics, the ratio of 5 out of 8 still looks good.
Looking at the table, it seems that I have a tendency to divest my non-core holding once it has done well. This is something which I wasn't aware of before this post. It will be something that I will take note of in future. Instead of divesting the counter after a strong performance, another option would be for me to spend more effort in understanding the counter and determine the possibility of turing it that into a core holding.
Punting on counters based on minimal information and uncertain business outlook continues to be a game of chance. Fu Yu went 10% up but Oceanus and Innotek went the other way. Not in a hurry to divest Oceanus and Innotek yet as amount put in was minimal, especially for Oceanus. Also, am still feeling positive of a possible turnaround next year or the year after next.
The table also highlighted the strong performance of my three counters in my CPF portfolio which returned 16% thus far. If this continues for the rest of the year, it will be the 9th consecutive year that my CPF portfolio beats STI ETF.
The following tables show the top gainers and losers for this year thus far. The list should remain pretty much the same by end of the year.
I am glad that 7 out of my 10 core holdings have returned more than 10% thus far this year. Even with the divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics, the ratio of 5 out of 8 still looks good.
Looking at the table, it seems that I have a tendency to divest my non-core holding once it has done well. This is something which I wasn't aware of before this post. It will be something that I will take note of in future. Instead of divesting the counter after a strong performance, another option would be for me to spend more effort in understanding the counter and determine the possibility of turing it that into a core holding.
Punting on counters based on minimal information and uncertain business outlook continues to be a game of chance. Fu Yu went 10% up but Oceanus and Innotek went the other way. Not in a hurry to divest Oceanus and Innotek yet as amount put in was minimal, especially for Oceanus. Also, am still feeling positive of a possible turnaround next year or the year after next.
The table also highlighted the strong performance of my three counters in my CPF portfolio which returned 16% thus far. If this continues for the rest of the year, it will be the 9th consecutive year that my CPF portfolio beats STI ETF.
Allocation
Dividend vs Growth
With the divestment of two core holdings and exploration of the US market, the allocation looked quite different from the the first half of the year. Cash stands at a high of 15%. Dividend yield of portfolio based on cost is at a low of 3.4%.
With the divestment of two core holdings and exploration of the US market, the allocation looked quite different from the the first half of the year. Cash stands at a high of 15%. Dividend yield of portfolio based on cost is at a low of 3.4%.
Planned
|
Actual
| |
Dividend
|
~ 60%
|
55%
|
REIT/ Business Trust
|
<= 30%
|
25%
|
Growth
|
~ 40%
|
30%
|
Punt
|
<=10%
|
3%
|
Cash
|
0%
|
15%
|
Singapore vs US
Being new to US market, I decided to allocated at most 15% of my fund to it till end of 2018. Currently, it stands at about 12% with 4% invested and 8% in cash.
Action
For the month of September, I have sold
- Dairy Farm at US$8.03 for a gain of 5.0%.
- Singapore O&G at $0.49 for a gain of 2.1%.
- mm2 Asia at $0.49 for a gain of 1.9%.
- Mapletree GCC Trust at $1.15 for a gain of 4.9%.
I have bought the first 3 in August due to their steep drop. Decided to divest them for a quick profit and re-invest them in other counters which I am more familiar with. As for Mapletree GCC, bought it last month with an incorrect understanding of the location of its HK property. Got lucky with it, so decided to take profit.
On the US Market, I have also sold
Dug into the numbers and checked the PE and growth rate of my US counters. The current PE for the first 3 stocks are all much higher than its historical average and PEG are all above 2. Hence, decided to divest them. As for Chiptole, there is currently too much uncertainty and so decided to stay away from it for the moment.On the US Market, I have also sold
- Cognex at US$114.45 for a gain of 3.4%.
- Mastercard at US$140.23 for a gain of 6.1%.
- Priceline at US$1840.60 resulting in a loss of 5.1%.
- Chipotle at US$307 resulting in a loss of 13.4%.
I have added
- more Straco at $0.87. Continue to like its cash generating business. This article by the "Rock" in NextInsight provides a good reading.
- more Hong Kong Land at US$7.28. Same reason as initial purchase in August. Cheap P/B and good results.
- more 800 Super at $1.085 as it continued to trend lower after its announcement of its Q4 results. Two quarters of weaker performances but it has continued to increase its dividend. Looking for a better performance in 2018.
- more Japan Food at $0.435. Same reason as initial purchase - consistent dividend.
- iFAST at $0.87. Its price has slid from its high after announcing a strong 1H results. While its China business will take some time to break even, its other countries performance is growing very well.
- Hock Lian Seng at $0.445. High visibility due to strong record book. If the company is able to maintain its dividend of 2.5 cents, then the yield is about 5.6%.
- ComfortDelgro at $1.995. Bought a tiny stake as I felt that it is oversold. While Taxi business is under great pressure, rail and bus are still doing well. Due to a sudden turn in its share price, I sold it today at $2.08 for a small gain of 2.8%.
Core holdings
Core holdings are counters which I am more familiar with. These are counters which I am more confident of and have a more substantial holding (at least 5% of portfolio); hence I am more likely to hold them for a longer period of time.
The current average holding period is about 2.4 years, as compared to 0.5 years for the remaining holding.
Divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics and purchase of VICOM has resulted in partial change of core holdings. These 8 (out of 26) holdings make up 53% of my outlay cost.
The current average holding period is about 2.4 years, as compared to 0.5 years for the remaining holding.
Divestment of Best World and Micro-Mechanics and purchase of VICOM has resulted in partial change of core holdings. These 8 (out of 26) holdings make up 53% of my outlay cost.
- Food Empire (9%) @ $0.46
- Raffles Medical (8%) @ $1.41
- Straco (8%) @ $0.85
- Parkwaylife REIT (6%) @ $2.32
- Valuetronics (6%) @ $0.54
- Fraser Centrepoint Trust (6%) @ $2.03
- VICOM (5%) @ $5.75
- Starhill Global (5%) @ $0.70
Looking Ahead
For the remaining quarter, I am looking forward to dividend from various REITs, 800 Super, RMG, SingTel, UMS, iFast and Japan Food. I am also hopeful of good quarterly result from Food Empire, Straco and Valuetronics which might have a positive impact on their prices. Raffles Medical Group should report another quarter of muted performance.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, return for the year should be above 35%. With some luck, it might breach the 40% mark.
Monday, 28 August 2017
Buy and sell actions in August
Lots of action this month. Divested a few counters but bought quite a bit with the $$$ from divestment of Best World.
Out of Favour
Divested Kingsmen Creatives at the same price I bought. This is the turnaround story that is not working out yet. It reported a poor Q2 and I decided to wait for a clearer picture before re-entering again.
Divested half my stake in ISEC at 0.315. Tiny profit. Still an interesting outfit but its growth isn't exciting enough for it to occupy the middle of my portfolio. Hence decided to hold less and watch how the story unfolds.
Sold Capital Mall Trust at 2.10. It has risen more than 10% from my purchased price. Covered 2 years of dividend. Will recycle cash to other counters that offer higher dividend yield. Might re-enter when it offers a better yield.
Sold Mircro-mechanics at 1.41. Bought purely for its track record for dividend but its price has gone up to 7 years of dividend due to its good performance. Decided to divest it as its dividend yield dropped below 5%. Surprised me with a second rise of dividend this year and with a 8 cents dividend, yield gone up to 5.6%. On hind side, should have continued to hold on to it but actually felt pretty neutral about it. Probably am satisfied with the above expectation return from the counter.
Up the Dividend
Bought a lot more counters especially REIT to increase my annual dividend. Also, I like their outlook from next year onward.
Added Fraser Centrepoint Trust at 2.07. With the AEI of North Point completing this year, next year DPU should increase. Assuming a 12 cents DPU next year, it will translate to 5.8% yield and potential upside if DPU is even higher. Possible catalyst could be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point.
Added Starhill Global Reit at 0.76. While Orchard office occupancy could still pose a problem, AEI at Plaze Arcade in Australia is expected to be completed in 20181Q. China property would have a more stable distribution with the completion of renovation by 20174Q. Expecting a minimal 4.8 cents DPU next year. This translates to a 6.3% yield.
Bought CDL Hospitality Trust at 1.575. I have bought and sold CDLHT a couple of times for the past 4 years. Win some, lose some and overall still negative. Betting on the improvement of its hotels in the next two years. Assuming a 10 cents DPU, dividend yield is approximately 6.3%.
Bought Mapletree Commercial Trust at 1.55. A retail and office reit which I have missed for the longest time. Its DPU has been increasing since its listing. Estimating a 9 cents DPU which will give a 5.8% yield.
Bought VICOM at 5.81 (cd) and 5.65 (xd). A subdue Q2 results but with immediate effect it is paying out at least 90% of its earning as dividend. It gives more certainty that the company can maintain its dividend for the next two to three years even when revenue dropped due to increasing de-registration of cars. From 2020/21 onwards, it should see an increase in its revenue and income again with more vehicles requiring checking.
Buying into the Sell-down
Quite a number of counters were sold down for the past month, for good or questionable reasons. The sell-down provided me an opportunity to buy some shares of the counter which I think could do well in the future.
Bought Dairy Farm at USD7.45. The company has announced a decent Q2 recently and turnaround seems to gathering speed with good progress in China. The price was beaten down by 2% to 3% in one of the trading day and I deem it as an opportunity to add some.
Bought InnoTek at 0.34. The stock is beaten down because it reported a poor Q2. However, 1H is still an improvement. While the remaining year might remain a challenge, effort has been put in by management to turn the company around. Initiated the position with the belief that the turnaround will come in 2018 or 2019.
Bought mm2 Asia at 0.475. The price has dropped sharply after its GV deal did not get through. Nevertheless, it reported a good 1Q results and I decided to take a punt on it.
Bought HKLand at USD 7.46. Read about its cheap P/B and good results. Hence, decided to take a stake when its price has dropped by about 5% from its recent high.
Bought UMS at 0.995. The price has dropped sharply after guidance of moderate performance in 2H. Nimble a bit as I believe it will maintain its dividend which is a tasty 6%.
Bought 800 Super at 1.12. The price has dropped after a poor Q3. The price weakened further just before it announced its full year results. Took the opportunity to re-enter the counter which I have divested at 1.26 in April.
Bought Singapore O&G at 0.44. The price has dropped sharply after its weak Q2 results. Took a punt on it as company is still profitable and should get better results moving forward.
US Market
Most of my purchase decision for the US markets come from the recommendation of MF subscription services. Unlike my local counters, I did not do as much homework on them. While I think that the valuations of the counters are high, I like their future stories hence my stake in them. All my purchases are small and will slowly wait for opportunity to accumulate more shares in the future.
Bought Vail Resort at USD210.51. Luxury ski resorts operator. It has been growing through acquisition and opportunities to grow is still available. Its plan to keep its resort busy all-year round is working out well with Epic Discovery activities coming on more than one location.
Bought Cognex at USD105. Machine-Vision systems are used all around the world. Growth expected to continue.
Bought Priceline at USD1870. Good Q2 results but market is spooked by its lower Q3 guidance. Taking this opportunity to have one bite on it.
Bought Intuitive Surgical at USD935. Intuitive Surgical have been growing for many years and its recurring income has increased. Decided to buy 2 shares to participate in its growth even though it has a high PE of 44x.
Out of Favour
Divested Kingsmen Creatives at the same price I bought. This is the turnaround story that is not working out yet. It reported a poor Q2 and I decided to wait for a clearer picture before re-entering again.
Divested half my stake in ISEC at 0.315. Tiny profit. Still an interesting outfit but its growth isn't exciting enough for it to occupy the middle of my portfolio. Hence decided to hold less and watch how the story unfolds.
Sold Capital Mall Trust at 2.10. It has risen more than 10% from my purchased price. Covered 2 years of dividend. Will recycle cash to other counters that offer higher dividend yield. Might re-enter when it offers a better yield.
Sold Mircro-mechanics at 1.41. Bought purely for its track record for dividend but its price has gone up to 7 years of dividend due to its good performance. Decided to divest it as its dividend yield dropped below 5%. Surprised me with a second rise of dividend this year and with a 8 cents dividend, yield gone up to 5.6%. On hind side, should have continued to hold on to it but actually felt pretty neutral about it. Probably am satisfied with the above expectation return from the counter.
Up the Dividend
Bought a lot more counters especially REIT to increase my annual dividend. Also, I like their outlook from next year onward.
Added Fraser Centrepoint Trust at 2.07. With the AEI of North Point completing this year, next year DPU should increase. Assuming a 12 cents DPU next year, it will translate to 5.8% yield and potential upside if DPU is even higher. Possible catalyst could be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point.
Added Starhill Global Reit at 0.76. While Orchard office occupancy could still pose a problem, AEI at Plaze Arcade in Australia is expected to be completed in 20181Q. China property would have a more stable distribution with the completion of renovation by 20174Q. Expecting a minimal 4.8 cents DPU next year. This translates to a 6.3% yield.
Bought CDL Hospitality Trust at 1.575. I have bought and sold CDLHT a couple of times for the past 4 years. Win some, lose some and overall still negative. Betting on the improvement of its hotels in the next two years. Assuming a 10 cents DPU, dividend yield is approximately 6.3%.
Bought Mapletree Commercial Trust at 1.55. A retail and office reit which I have missed for the longest time. Its DPU has been increasing since its listing. Estimating a 9 cents DPU which will give a 5.8% yield.
Bought VICOM at 5.81 (cd) and 5.65 (xd). A subdue Q2 results but with immediate effect it is paying out at least 90% of its earning as dividend. It gives more certainty that the company can maintain its dividend for the next two to three years even when revenue dropped due to increasing de-registration of cars. From 2020/21 onwards, it should see an increase in its revenue and income again with more vehicles requiring checking.
Buying into the Sell-down
Quite a number of counters were sold down for the past month, for good or questionable reasons. The sell-down provided me an opportunity to buy some shares of the counter which I think could do well in the future.
Bought Dairy Farm at USD7.45. The company has announced a decent Q2 recently and turnaround seems to gathering speed with good progress in China. The price was beaten down by 2% to 3% in one of the trading day and I deem it as an opportunity to add some.
Bought InnoTek at 0.34. The stock is beaten down because it reported a poor Q2. However, 1H is still an improvement. While the remaining year might remain a challenge, effort has been put in by management to turn the company around. Initiated the position with the belief that the turnaround will come in 2018 or 2019.
Bought mm2 Asia at 0.475. The price has dropped sharply after its GV deal did not get through. Nevertheless, it reported a good 1Q results and I decided to take a punt on it.
Bought HKLand at USD 7.46. Read about its cheap P/B and good results. Hence, decided to take a stake when its price has dropped by about 5% from its recent high.
Bought UMS at 0.995. The price has dropped sharply after guidance of moderate performance in 2H. Nimble a bit as I believe it will maintain its dividend which is a tasty 6%.
Bought 800 Super at 1.12. The price has dropped after a poor Q3. The price weakened further just before it announced its full year results. Took the opportunity to re-enter the counter which I have divested at 1.26 in April.
Bought Singapore O&G at 0.44. The price has dropped sharply after its weak Q2 results. Took a punt on it as company is still profitable and should get better results moving forward.
US Market
Most of my purchase decision for the US markets come from the recommendation of MF subscription services. Unlike my local counters, I did not do as much homework on them. While I think that the valuations of the counters are high, I like their future stories hence my stake in them. All my purchases are small and will slowly wait for opportunity to accumulate more shares in the future.
Bought Vail Resort at USD210.51. Luxury ski resorts operator. It has been growing through acquisition and opportunities to grow is still available. Its plan to keep its resort busy all-year round is working out well with Epic Discovery activities coming on more than one location.
Bought Cognex at USD105. Machine-Vision systems are used all around the world. Growth expected to continue.
Bought Priceline at USD1870. Good Q2 results but market is spooked by its lower Q3 guidance. Taking this opportunity to have one bite on it.
Bought Intuitive Surgical at USD935. Intuitive Surgical have been growing for many years and its recurring income has increased. Decided to buy 2 shares to participate in its growth even though it has a high PE of 44x.
Tuesday, 15 August 2017
Top 10 Counters Quarterly Reporting (July to September)
With the exception of Micro-Mechanics, the rest of my top 10 counters have reported their quarterly report. I will update this post with MMs results when it is out later this month which I believe would be a good.
With the divestment of Best World in July, my recent purchase of VICOM has taken the last place of my top ten counters. I will post on the purchase of VICOM soon.
The tables below summarize their performances for the latest quarter.
A+
The company also produces a presentation for 20181Q report which provides a good read of the company's business. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I expect the business to continue to do well for this year. Hence, I will continue to hold on to my shares.
Straco
Straco has a good quarter as its revenue and net profit continues to grow. With the exception of UWX, the rest of its attractions - SOA, SF and Lixing cable car saw higher visitor numbers.Straco's NPM has always been above 30% and with little capex, it is generate lots of cash that allows it to pare down its debt.
I am hopeful for an increase in dividend either for this financial year, if not by next financial year.
Micro-Mechanics
Micro-Mechanics reported a good quarter with another increase in dividend. However, I decided to divest it just before it announces its results. Hence, I will not update its performance.
A
ParkwayLife REIT
ParkwayLife continues to improve its DPU y-o-y and q-o-q. With the distribution of its divestment gain over the four quarters, the return is even more impressive. Management has good track record in improving DPU and has make gains from its divestment. They are also forward looking and in the latest report has indicated the decision to diversify their portfolio by investing in properties used for medical manufacturing & storage facilities & education facilities (target 5% of portfolio).
The price has run up quite a bit in the last few months and it is indeed tempting to lock in some profit. However since I still believe in its long term growth, I will hold on to my current holdings.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
FCT reported a stable quarter with slight decline in its DPU. With its AEI for Northpoint 90% completed, DPU should improve next year. With a low gearing of only 30%, one possible catalyst would be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point within the next few years.
I will look for opportunity to accumulate more if the price softens.
B
Food Empire
Food Empire continues its turnaround story with an exceptional increase in both revenue and net profit y-o-y. However, q-o-q the results is not as impressive and the its NPM is not very stable.
In Q1, Indochina's weaker performance was attributed to a change in festive season date. However, Q2 results does not see a big change. Hence, as management highlighted in the report, they are facing tough competition. The strongest segment is their Other Markets which improves both y-o-y and q-o-q.
Based on past record, it seems that their 2H performance is better than 1H. If they are able to achieve the improvement in Q3, I will up them to the A Band.
Singtel
Strong growth in revenue but net profit suffers due to intense competition in India. NPM remains high at above 20%. Singtel should be able to maintain its dividend and hopeful for special dividend when it records its gain from its divestment of Netlink.
VICOM
Revenue and net profit continues to drop due to decrease in car inspection because of COE cycle. However, company has pretty much maintain its dividend and has up its dividend policy to 90% payout.Strong net profit margin of above 20% and if it is able to maintain similar dividend for just a few more years, its revenue and net profit will grow again.
Will look for opportunity to increase stake.
C
Raffles Medical Group
Slightly better than 20171Q, with revenue up by 1.0% and net profit up by 0.7% as compared to 20161Q. Q-o-Q, the improvement is better.
The report highlighted weaken demand from foreign patients but it still generated more than enough sufficient cash to support its expansion. Raffles Hospital Extension will open in Q4, Raffles Chongqing in 2018 second half and Raffles Shanghai in 2019 second half.
The market responded badly with this Q2 results, causing the price to drop to below $1.2. I will take the opportunity to further accumulate my holding at the correct price. Expect to see the benefits from its expansion from 2020 onwards.
Starhill Global REIT
DPU continues to drop due to poor performance for its office segment and AEI for Plaza Arcade. As with Q1 report, I stay satisfied with the current DPU and actions taken by the management. I expect a better performance in 2018, hence may buy more if the price is good.
With the divestment of Best World in July, my recent purchase of VICOM has taken the last place of my top ten counters. I will post on the purchase of VICOM soon.
The tables below summarize their performances for the latest quarter.
A+
Valuetronics
Fantastic quarter by Valuetronics as it continues its turnaround with strong momentum in wireless lighting business and continuous growth in automotive segment. NPM average 6.9% over the last four quarters, much higher than the average of 6.2% in the preceding 4 quarters. A good decision made by management to exit LED business and go into automotive segment.
The company also produces a presentation for 20181Q report which provides a good read of the company's business. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I expect the business to continue to do well for this year. Hence, I will continue to hold on to my shares.
Straco
Straco has a good quarter as its revenue and net profit continues to grow. With the exception of UWX, the rest of its attractions - SOA, SF and Lixing cable car saw higher visitor numbers.Straco's NPM has always been above 30% and with little capex, it is generate lots of cash that allows it to pare down its debt.
I am hopeful for an increase in dividend either for this financial year, if not by next financial year.
Micro-Mechanics
Micro-Mechanics reported a good quarter with another increase in dividend. However, I decided to divest it just before it announces its results. Hence, I will not update its performance.
A
ParkwayLife REIT
ParkwayLife continues to improve its DPU y-o-y and q-o-q. With the distribution of its divestment gain over the four quarters, the return is even more impressive. Management has good track record in improving DPU and has make gains from its divestment. They are also forward looking and in the latest report has indicated the decision to diversify their portfolio by investing in properties used for medical manufacturing & storage facilities & education facilities (target 5% of portfolio).
The price has run up quite a bit in the last few months and it is indeed tempting to lock in some profit. However since I still believe in its long term growth, I will hold on to my current holdings.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
FCT reported a stable quarter with slight decline in its DPU. With its AEI for Northpoint 90% completed, DPU should improve next year. With a low gearing of only 30%, one possible catalyst would be acquisition of Punggol Waterway Point within the next few years.
I will look for opportunity to accumulate more if the price softens.
B
Food Empire
Food Empire continues its turnaround story with an exceptional increase in both revenue and net profit y-o-y. However, q-o-q the results is not as impressive and the its NPM is not very stable.
In Q1, Indochina's weaker performance was attributed to a change in festive season date. However, Q2 results does not see a big change. Hence, as management highlighted in the report, they are facing tough competition. The strongest segment is their Other Markets which improves both y-o-y and q-o-q.
Based on past record, it seems that their 2H performance is better than 1H. If they are able to achieve the improvement in Q3, I will up them to the A Band.
Singtel
Strong growth in revenue but net profit suffers due to intense competition in India. NPM remains high at above 20%. Singtel should be able to maintain its dividend and hopeful for special dividend when it records its gain from its divestment of Netlink.
VICOM
Revenue and net profit continues to drop due to decrease in car inspection because of COE cycle. However, company has pretty much maintain its dividend and has up its dividend policy to 90% payout.Strong net profit margin of above 20% and if it is able to maintain similar dividend for just a few more years, its revenue and net profit will grow again.
Will look for opportunity to increase stake.
C
Raffles Medical Group
Slightly better than 20171Q, with revenue up by 1.0% and net profit up by 0.7% as compared to 20161Q. Q-o-Q, the improvement is better.
The report highlighted weaken demand from foreign patients but it still generated more than enough sufficient cash to support its expansion. Raffles Hospital Extension will open in Q4, Raffles Chongqing in 2018 second half and Raffles Shanghai in 2019 second half.
The market responded badly with this Q2 results, causing the price to drop to below $1.2. I will take the opportunity to further accumulate my holding at the correct price. Expect to see the benefits from its expansion from 2020 onwards.
Starhill Global REIT
DPU continues to drop due to poor performance for its office segment and AEI for Plaza Arcade. As with Q1 report, I stay satisfied with the current DPU and actions taken by the management. I expect a better performance in 2018, hence may buy more if the price is good.
Saturday, 1 July 2017
Looking Ahead
Having achieved a good first half results, the question is how to improve or sustain it? Best World, Food Empire and Valuetronics were the key drivers of my first half performance. Will they continue to do well in the next few years? Will other counters take over the driver seat?
I decided to make a prediction on the above questions base on my current, limited knowledge of their business and gut feel. Of course, this is speculative in nature but it provides a rough idea how my portfolio might continue to grow in the next few years.
I must say I am quite satisfied after the exercise as there seem to be sufficient stories to keep my portfolio going. What about the other counters that did not even appear once in this post? I will write about them in the next post.
20172H
Food Empire - Turnaround should continue with positive results.
Valuetronics - Both CE and ICE segments will continue their growth momentum.
Best World - China story is in tact and should continue to power its growth.
SingTel - Launch of Netlink IPO should have a positive impact.
Micromechanics - Continue to benefit from its strategic decision to focus on semiconductor.
ISEC? Improvement in results, partly contributed by the acquisition of JLM clinics in 2016?
2018
Food Empire - Growth rate should be lower as compared to 2017. Expect growth from other markets, especially from the ingredient segment.
Valuetronics - At least for first half of the year with their automotive segment continues to gain traction.
Best World - This year should see more conversion of China export model to direct sales. Margin should improve.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust - DPU boosted by Northpoint AEI in 2017.
Starhill Global REIT - DPU boosted by completion of Plaza Arcade redevelopment by 20181Q.
Straco? Will it increase its dividend?
Kingsmen Creatives? Will this be the turnaround year?
Raffles Medical Group? Unlikely, but will the new extension start to make a difference?
Duty Free International? Expansion or increase dividend from their cash hoard?
2019
Straco - Either acquisition or increase dividend if it did not do so in 2018.
Capital Mall Trust - DPU boosted from re-opening of Funan in 2018.
Raffles Medical Group? Contribution from Extension and Raffles Chongqing but may face start-up cost pressure from Raffles Shanghai.
Best World? Will it continue to grow?
Frasers Centrepoint Trust? Acquisition of Waterway Point? or in 2020 or 2021?
Starhill Global REIT? Orchard office turnaround?
Kingsmen Creatives? Continue its turnaround?
Frasers Logistic and Industries Trust? More acquisition?
2020/2021
Raffles Medical Group - Reaping the fruit of its expansion.
Straco - Further increase in dividend.
2017 1H Performance
Half a year has passed and it's time to report on portfolio performance again. Happy to report a good half yearly performance with a good second quarter riding on an exceptional first quarter.
Performance
NAV of portfolio grew from $3.78 (30 Dec 2016) to $5.17 (30 Jun 2017), providing a return of 36.6% for 6 months. This is above my stretched target of 12% and also beats my benchmark STI ETF which returned 14.6% inclusive of dividend over the same period. The charts below show the past 6 quarters and past 3 half-yearly performances. The drop in prices of a few counters in the past few weeks have weakened Q2 results but nonetheless a 9.0% return is a good one which I will take for any other year. The exception Q1 performance has also led to the best half yearly performance.
The strong performance is attributed to a combination of positive sentiment in the local market and good results reported from my top ten counters over the past two quarters. A summary of my top ten counters' last quarter performance can be found here.
The top performers continues to be Best World. After stock split and dividend, it has returned 127% this year. This is supported by core stock such as Valuetronics (47%), Food Empire (35%), Micro-Mechanics (32%), Straco (19%), Parkway Life Reit (15%), and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (14%).
ISEC which is not in the top ten also did well with an increase of 10%.
Allocation
While there were some changes in the counter, portfolio allocation has more or less stayed similar to what was planned. Current dividend yield of portfolio based on cost is about 4.7%.
Planned
|
Actual
| |
Dividend
|
~ 60%
|
58.0%
|
REIT/ Business Trust
|
<= 30%
|
25.8%
|
Growth
|
~ 40%
|
40.1%
|
Punt
|
<=10%
|
9.4%
|
Cash
|
0%
|
1.9%
|
Earlier in the month, I have also wrote about asset allocation in which I have written that I am going for 30% cash and 70% stock allocation. A check on my spreadsheet shows that it is at this allocation. So no action will be taken to put in or take out cash from the portfolio.
Action
For the month of June,
I have divested
- A-REIT at $2.65 for a gain of 19%. Bought last December for a tantalising 7% yield for industry leader. With the recent gain, I have received more that 2 years of distribution and yield has dropped below 6%.
- Techwah at $0.515 for a gain of 10%. Reason for sale is to raise cash for other counters.
- more Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust at $1.03 after news of its latest acquisition. I take this as sign of how things will be like in the years to come.
- Japan Food at $0.46 for its consistent dividend. If it can maintain its dividend, it will give me a return of 4.3%. Not fantastic, so hope it will be higher in future.
- Duty Free International at $0.35 for its increase cash hoard and possible expansion in the next few years.
- Valuetronics at $0.77 to round up my holdings. Also, I am satisfied with the 4.7% dividend yield it is giving me.
Core holdings
Based on initial cost, the top 10 holdings take up 74.9% of the portfolio. With the purchase of Food Empire and Valuetronics, they have moved up in positions. The rest has remains pretty stable.
- Food Empire (9.7%) @ $0.43
- Raffles Medical (9.5%) @ $1.48
- Parkwaylife REIT (8.9%) @ $2.32
- Valuetronics (8.6%) @ $0.54
- Straco (8.1%) @ $0.84
- Best World (7.7%) @ $0.30
- Fraser Centrepoint Trust (6.4%) @ $2.01
- SingTel (6.1%) @ $3.82
- Micro-Mechanics (5.8%) @ $0.91
- Starhill Global (4.3%) @ $0.67
Looking Ahead
It has been a wonderful ride so far this year. Not sure how long the good time is going to last but enjoying it while it lasts. Looking forward to the release of next round of quarterly results from my holdings and am confident of good results from most of my holdings.Similar to first half, I do not think there will be much action on my core holdings. However, I might tingle a bit more with my none-core.
Up next, I will post on a short visibility report of my various holdings for the next few years.
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