Someone commented in the Wallstraits forum early this year that the forum is getting dead with little new postings and discussions. Is there a correlation between number of posts and how the market is doing? Apparently, it seems that I am suffering from the same psychological effect, with a drop in interest in updating during the past half a year when my portfolio paints a bloody picture. Yes, there were occasions where I wanted to update but did not get down to it eventually. Here I am finally but is it coincidental that this timing matches the rally on STI over the past 2 weeks or with the blood coming off my portfolio, I feel better to write about it. In any case, it’s necessary for me to constantly reviewing my position since I wanted this to my alternative source of income which will help me to achieve financial independency. So here I go.
As mentioned in October 2008, 2008 was a tough year and both my cash and CPF portfolio slid further to end up 38.8% and 48.4% lower than 2007. Things did not look better early this year especially my cash portfolio which continued to drop by another 30% by February and NAV was lower than $1 (initial position in 2002) before it showed a better performance in March and April. The last two weeks’ rally has really been amazing, resulting in a YTD 9.4% and 30.8% gain for my cash and CPF portfolio respectively. Again, this show how hard it is to predict the market and how one can just miss the boat if he wants to catch the bottom.
Action from Oct 2008 to today
With limited cash, I did not do much trading. I added Thomson Medical Centre (10 lots at $0.473) to my portfolio in December 2008 as I like their story especially when quite a number of my friends giving birth there. With its expansion in Vietnam, it seems that the company is on track for further years of growth.
I also increased my stake in Celestial (average down to $0.326 with 50 lots at $0.11) in March 2009. This was an exception and risky purchase as it would make Celestial occupying near to 40% of my portfolio. With the news that its outstanding bonds might be redeemed by June this year and the company has yet to confirm the re-financing plan, it could mean that my stake could be wiped out. I decided to take the risk since the offer was just too good to resist. I offloaded 50 lots at $0.21 yesterday realizing a loss of $5833 for this counter. While I am still confident of the company in next few years, the fact that re-financing is still unconfirmed with only 1 ½ months to go is not re-assuring. I will decide when the company announces its 20091Q results whether to hold on to the other 50 lots or to cut loss.
I also increased my stakes of Kingsmen Creative (10 lots at $0.335) and Pan United Corporation (10 lots at $0.35) in March 09 and December 09 respectively. Both companies did well last year and visibility is clear in the near future with attractive dividend yield of 10% and 7.5% respectively.
I bought Li Heng in October 08, increased my stakes in March 09 and sold all yesterday with a profit of $1609. While I like its story, it is expected that 091Q results will be bad as indicated by management, so with little visibility, I decided to take profit. The company will remain in my radar.
Sold Lantrovision today to realize a loss of $836. The counter was brought for punting but decided to cash out so as to use the cash for investment in better companies.
The biggest story in my cash portfolio must be FibreChem which was suspended in March as the audit was unable to account for its cash balance. CEO has resigned and pledged to assist in the investigation and extension of releasing of 2008 report was granted till June 09. Worse case scenario will be $10 k wipe out. This shows the importance of diversification as one will never know what will happen even if past records of company were good.
My CPF portfolio has remained stable with no purchase or selling of any of my stocks and unit trusts.
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