Lessons learned

A pal messaged me that she discovered that I am actively investing after chancing upon my posts in G+ community. The message prompted me to look back at my earlier posts a decade earlier. One of the posts are my reflection from various decisions made. As I read through them, I think they are still quite relevant now. So I have decided to re-post them here.

1. When the price shoots up too far from its fundamental without any news, release it.
2. Do homework before investing.
3. Familiar brand does not mean a thing.  
4. Do no rely on others’ analysis.
5. When fundamental of company is not doing well, look hard into the cause and divest the shares instead of hoping for turn-around if there are no such signs.
6. Believe in your own analysis!
7. If valuation is reasonable with sustainable high growth rate, don’t rush into selling.
8. Valuation is not everything.

Reading the above 8 points, I would say points 2, 4 and 6 are similar which is really important. Due diligent is definitely one of the factors that contribute to success in investing. Good decision is made when one has a good knowledge of the company.

Points 3, 5, 7 and 8 have stuck with me for some time and I will continue to remember them.

Point 1 seldom happens but if it happens now, I know what I will do.

2017 Goal and Strategies

In March 2015, I set out to achieve at least 8% CAGR with a review at the end of 2019. My full year return in 2015 was -10% and in 2016 was 41%. This results is a CAGR is 20% over the past 2 years.

So what will my return be for 2017? I do not know.

Anything can happen. It could be a bad year as media has reported or performed much better than surprise. There are too many factors that affect the world economy and human sentiment will continue to drive the stock market direction.  However, one thing that will remain unchanged is that a company with strong fundamental will survive. With strong balance sheet and cash flow, it will be able to sustain its dividend payout and might even grow.

Will the market crash? I do not know.

If yes, then it's time for shopping. Again, company with strong fundamental will bounce back.

My target remains to achieve CAGR of at least 8% and strategies remained unchanged.

• To learn about the companies that I am vested in.
• To search for strong companies or hidden GEM to invest in.
• To divest from a company when fundamentals changes or when better opportunity is avail.
• To keep to my portfolio allocation.

Wishing all a fruitful year ahead.

2016 Performance and Review

Today marks the end of market for the year. It brings me great pleasure to announce that my portfolio has returned 41% (including dividend) for the year. My best performance since 2007, largely attributed to the excellent performance by Best World International Limited (BWL). Even if I excluded the gain from BWL, portfolio would have returned approximately 9% which still beats STI ETF that has remained flat for the year with about a 3% return from dividend.

What has gone well?
I have largely adhere to my portfolio allocation that set out in March 2015. Tracking the allocation has reduces the risk of skewing my portfolio to a category just because I am suddenly excited by an avail opportunity.

Along the year, I have tweaked my strategy and have decided to keep my exposure to REIT to around 30%. Also, I have decided to create a sub-category "Turnaround" which falls under the "Growth" category.

The second thing that has gone well was slightly more time was spent reading up about the businesses that I am interested in. This leads to relative smaller movement in my top 5 holdings as compared to the rest of my portfolio. Best World, PLife Reit, Straco and SG Reit have remained in this list. The exception is ST Engineering which is replaced by Raffles Medical and Fraser Centrepoint Trust.

This marked the 25th post for the year. The highest since I started this blog!

What could be better?
I am still trading quite a bit over the second half of the year. Also, am still looking at the price of the stocks way too often. I hope that will change in 2017 and I would instead spend more time learning about the business in my portfolio.

What to look for in 2017?
These are the things about the Growth/Turnaround/Punt counters that I am excited for the year ahead.
1. Completion of Raffles Hospital Extension.
2. Best World execution of its conversion of China's export model to direct selling model.
3. Completion of 800 Super WTE plant.
4. Continue growth of Vietnam business for Food Empire.

For my Dividend/REIT counters, I believe they are able to sustain their payouts for 2017.

Portfolio December 2016

The purchases made this month are mainly due to their reduced price.

1. CMT - Purchased at an average price of $1.88 for a yield of 5.8%.
2. AReit - Purchased at an average price of $2.28 for a yield of 6.7%

Other trades in December.

3. Added to Best World

4. Added to Fraser Centrepoint Trust

5. Added to 800 Super
6. Added to Thai Beverage 

7. Added to SingTel
8. Divested Dairy Farm to raise cash
9. Divested QAF to raise cash
10. Divested ST Engineering to raise cash
11. Divested LHN due to lack of understanding of business.

Current dividend yield (based on purchase price) is 4.0%.

For Income (52.8%)

REIT (31.7%)

Parkway Life REIT

Fraser Centrepoint Trust
Starhill Global REIT

Capital Mall Trust
Ascendas REIT
CDL Hospitality REIT

Dividend Stocks (21.1%)

Straco
SingTel

Valuetronics

Micromechanics

For Growth, Turnaround and Punting (40.3%)

Growth Stocks (28.6%)

Best World

Raffles Medical
ISO Team

Turnaround (4.5%)

Food Empire

Punt (7.1%)

800 Super
Thai Beverage

ISEC

Portfolio November 2016

November is a month of punting. Lots of trading with small purchases based on others' reviews and a short read-up on latest results and last year AR.

The purchases are:

1. Dairy Farm - One of the recommendations by MF Singapore. I don't always buy their recommendations. The other 2 stocks that I have bought due to their recommendation are SGX and RMG. Still holding on to RMG but have divested SGX. Dairy Farm was recommended somewhere in August but I only bought this month as I realized that all 3 analysts have a stake in it and hence I am more convinced of their recommendation. Classifying under punt due to the nature I bought it but probably would go under growth category if their investment in Yonghui and IKEA franchise in HK, Taiwan and Indonesia continue to perform.

2. ISEC - International Specialist Eye Centre. Read about its 3Q results in MF Singapore free site and its jump in earning caught my attention. Further reading tells me that it just IPO in 2014 and earning has not been consistent after listing. Decided to take a small stake as I think it has a potential to grow; it is increasing its dividend; and a high number of employees are holding its shares.

3. Thai Beverage - This was a miss then. I was looking at it when it was going at 20 plus cents and the rest is history when it acquired F&N. I finally took a small stake in it after its price has drifted down from a high of $1.06 to $0.90. Its latest results is good but due to the acquisition and change of financial year, it is confusing to me. In any case, this is another company which has potential for further growth. Will start to follow it more closely in the coming year.

4. 800 Super  - Another stock which I missed the run up. Came into my radar when it is at 40 plus cents but its huge debt put me off. Thanks to a value buddy who posted on the company's development of its Waste to Energy plant and with its completion next year, the debt does not seem as scary as before if the new plant can generate a new stream of revenue and profit for them. Just took a small stake as an impetus to monitor how this development will plan out.

5. LHN - Get to know this business from another fellow investor. Just IPO in 2014 and latest results has improved quite a bit from 2015. Took a small bite and will sell in growth is not sustainable.

Other trades in Novemeber.

6. Added to RMG after reading through the past decade's annual reports and am convinced of its potential growth after the completion of its Hospital extension next year.

7. Added to Food Empire after an improvement of its latest results and purchase by its CEO.

8. Divested Old Chang Kee after making a gain of about 3 years dividend. Will continue to monitor its performance and might re-entered at a good price.

9. Divested FJ Benjamin after continued poor performance for 1Q and its price gained by about 30%.

10. Took a small stake in SingTel for a dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current dividend yield (based on purchase price) is 3.9% after putting in the cash withdrawn earlier this year.

For Income (52.2%)

REIT (27.8%)

Parkway Life REIT

Starhill Global REIT

Fraser Centrepoint Trust
CDL Hospitality REIT

Dividend Stocks (24.3%)

Straco

ST Engineering

Valuetronics

QAF

Micromechanics
SingTel

For Growth, Turnaround and Punting (39.9%)

Growth Stocks (26.8%)

Best World

Raffles Medical
ISO Team

Turnaround (4.6%)

Food Empire

Punt (8.5%)

ISEC

Dairy Farm

Thai Beverage

800 Super

LHN